If you have not been following the NFC South this year, it's largely because you only watch teams with winning records. If you have been following the NFC South, then your pharmacist and liquor store clerk are on a first name basis with you. As of this post the Carolina Panthers at an astonishing 5-8-1 are in first place in the division, depending on what happens in the Windy City tonight between the Road Warrior Saints and the Chicago Cubs, I mean Bears. If the Saints win they have a half game lead on the Panthers, and if they lose they'll be a half game behind tied with the Falcons. It will certainly be interesting as the QB from Santa Claus takes on the Homeless Santa Claus.
Tampa Bay fans are officially looking at 2015 Mock Drafts, while the remaining 3 teams, somehow get to host a playoff game against a host of teams we'll cover tonight in a variety of scenarios. So let's get to them.
NEW ORLEANS
If NOLA wins out, they're in. Plain and Simple. Just win baby. If they lose tonight, then things get a little murky. Let's take a look at their schedule:
Week 15 Saints vs. Bears in Chicago
Week 16 Falcons vs. Saints in New Orleans
Week 17 Saints vs. Bucs in Tampa Bay
The Saints historically have not been very good on the road, but this year they haven't been very good at home either. With news coming out of Chicago this week that the Bears' Offensive Coordinator privately ripped Jay Cutler, then openly admitted his comments to the team it certainly looks good for the Saints. The Saints then look for revenge against the Falcons after a Week 1 loss in the Georgia Dome, and finish up the regular season in Tampa Bay. A win tonight and they're in the driver's seat the rest of the way.
CAROLINA PANTHERS
As for the Panthers, Jerry Richardson would be wise to hire a driver for Cam Newton for the rest of his tenure in Charlotte. How he got out of this with minimal injuries should be an advertisement for Ford Motor Company. Derek Anderson played very well this weekend and the Panthers gutted out their 2nd straight win against the Bucs. The Panthers need the Saints to lose tonight, and if they do, they'll control their own destiny.
Week 16 Browns vs. Panthers in Charlotte
Week 17 Panthers vs. Falcons in Atlanta
After the way Johnny Football played this week, the Panthers defense has got to be smiling going into the game against the Browns. But, things change week to week and he can't be much worse than he was against the Bengals when his QB rating was a 1. The Panthers then head to Atlanta for the season-ender against the Dirty Birds. That game will be a lot tougher.
ATLANTA FALCONS
The Fighting Julio Joneses, I mean Atlanta Falcons, dropped out of first place this week, with a loss to the Steelers. Jones sat with a hip injury and they are clearly not the same team without him. The Falcons are in 3rd place right now, but believe it or not, still control their own destiny. Here's how.
Week 16 Falcons vs. Saints in New Orleans
Week 17 Panthers vs. Falcons in Atlanta
The Falcons play their final 2 games against the Saints and the Panthers. Win both of those, and they are in. If they beat New Orleans and Carolina, regardless if the Saints win tonight, they'd at least be tied with NOLA and they'll have the tie breaker over the Saints by winning both head to head games. Even if Carolina beats Cleveland, the Falcons would have a better record against them as well if they beat the Panthers in the Georgia Dome. If they lose against New Orleans next week though, they'll need some serious help by beating Carolina in Week 17 and cheering for the Bears, Browns, and Bucs.
So why is the NFC South so intriguing despite all being WELL UNDER .500? Well, it has to do with who they'll play if they win the division. The NFC South winner is locked into the 4 seed. So that means they'll face the 5 seed in the Wild Card Round of the Playoffs. Right now that means they'd play the Seattle Seahawks, and though that sounds like a guaranteed loss, it's not as certain as it might sound.
THINGS OUT WEST
The Seahawks are sitting one game behind the No. 1 seed Arizona Cardinals, who clinched a playoff spot this week when Philly lost to Dallas. On a side note, Bruce Arians deserves coach of the year and it's not even close. Seattle plays Arizona on Sunday night in the desert, then finish the season at home against the Rams. They'll be favored in both games and should win both which would bump them from the No. 5 seed to the No. 1 seed, regardless if the Cards beat the 49ers, because Seattle would have the tie breaker over Arizona.
Arizona finishes their last two games at home against Seattle then at San Francisco. Neither one of those are easy, but the 49ers are so ready to get to 2015 that they may just look for a better draft pick. Unless the Rams pull an upset in the Pacific Northwest, the game in the desert this week will determine who gets home field advantage.
THE BATTLE FOR THE NORTH
Up in the North the Lions are in first place after beating Minnesota and watching the Packers get upset by Buffalo. The Lions go to Chicago this week and finish the year at Lambeau, while the Packers head to Tampa Bay this week before the Lions come to town. It will likely all come down to next week in the Frozen Tundra based on the Lions win against Green Bay earlier this year, but Philly is hoping for upsets by the Bears and Bucs for a chance to get in as they sit one game back at 9-5.
The NFC EAST PICTURE
Philly plays the Redskins on the road this week....Spoiler Alert - WIN, and then goes to New York to play the Giants which has upset written all over it. The Eagles will be hoping the Packers beat the Lions in Lambeau since the Packers have the tie breaker over the Eagles via a blowout loss last month. That would match them up with their record against the Lions/Cowboys/Seahawks for that final spot. Sanchez has not looked impressive, and Eagles fans are going to absolutely lose it if they miss out on the playoffs because of his play down the stretch.
Dallas is in the driver's seat in the NFC East with their big win last night against Philly. They get Indy at home this week....ugh that's going to be tough, then go to Washington to close out the year. Again, win both games and their in. If not, it will depend how Philly does. So let's get to the most likely scenario if everything goes chalk for the NFC.
WHO IS MOST LIKELY TO BE PLAYING IN JANUARY?
The winner of the NFC South will most likely get the following team, Arizona. Here's why.
Arizona beat Philly head to head and they have 11 wins as of today. Even if they were to lose to Seattle and San Fran they'd get in over Philly, since Philly only has 9 wins with 2 to go. The Cards also have a head to head win over Dallas, plus they're already guaranteed a spot in the playoffs.
Detroit, which will likely be the No. 6 seed didn't play Dallas or Philly, so you go to in conference wins for the next tie breaker. They have 8 wins against NFC opponents with 2 more chances to get conference wins. Philly only has 5 with 2 games left to play, so they're out, and Dallas only has 6 wins against the conference with 1 game less to play, so they're out. Simple math. Meaning the NFC East is likely only going to get 1 team in the playoffs.
Green Bay should destroy Tampa this week and I'd be shocked if they lost to Detroit at Lambeau with the North Championship on the line. But let's say they do. If they do, that would put Green Bay likely as the 5 or 6 seed. They have 7 in conference wins with 2 conference games left and a head to head win over Philly. So Philly is not beating Green Bay for the last playoff spot, short of a miracle.
How about Dallas? Dallas and Green Bay didn't play this year so you go to conference record. Dallas has 6 wins with 1 left, while Green Bay has 7 wins with 2 left and one of those is against Tampa Bay. So again, Dallas is likely not getting in if they don't win the division, with 1 exception. See below.
WHAT IF ARIZONA WINS THE WEST AND SEATTLE GETS THE WILDCARD?
The Seahawks beat the Packers and Eagles head to head, so if it comes down to one of those two teams, they are in. But, they lost to the Cowboys so if the 10-4 Cowboys and the 10-4 Seahawks finish tied for the last wildcard spot, Dallas goes. Seattle and Detroit didn't play this year so you go to conference record. Seattle has 8 wins with 2 games conference games left and so does Detroit, so that is up in the air.
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
Seattle should win the West and get the No. 1 overall seed. The winner of the North would likely be the No. 2 seed, which I predict will be Green Bay. Dallas barring a complete Romo-like meltdown should win the East as long as they beat Washington in the final game for the 3 seed. That leaves either New Orleans, Carolina, or Atlanta for the No. 4 seed. While Arizona gets the 5 and Detroit get the 6 seed.
SO FINALLY, WHY IS THE NO. 4 SEED IMPORTANT?
Because of who you get to play. Arizona beat Detroit already this year, and they are a game ahead of them, so even if they lose out, if Detroit doesn't beat Green Bay, Arizona is the No. 5 seed.
The NFC South champs would be thrilled because if you get Arizona who has severe questions at QB to come into NOLA, Charlotte, or Atlanta, I think you have to favor the home team. Carolina's defense has much improved the last couple weeks, and even if Newton doesn't play they have a capable back up in Anderson. New Orleans despite their ups and downs this year, can still put up a ton of points in that dome and if it gets into a track meet, I don't think Arizona can keep up. Atlanta with a healthy Julio Jones at home is also a very tough team to beat, and can put up some points, and they've already beaten the Cards in Georgia once this year. The NFC South champ should be praying Seattle beats Arizona and that they get them the Cards in the 1st round.
So, despite how terrible the NFC South has looked this year, they could make it to the divisional round. The problem is they'll have to likely go to Seattle after that win, and that's not going to be pretty.
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