Wednesday, November 12, 2014

Mid-Season NFL Review and Bold Predictions

We're a little over halfway through the NFL season, and if you're a fan of the NFC South, welcome to a division that would be lucky to beat Wake Forest on a neutral field.   Going forward I'll offer an assessment of each team and division along with some bold predictions for things that may or let's face it most certainly won't happen this year and in the offseason.  


                                                                                 Courtesy of USA Today

AFC EAST - This division has been New England's for the last decade plus, and will continue to be in 2014.  Miami is certainly improved, and Buffalo has been surprising but looks to be fading down the stretch.  The Jets, well....the Jets will be drafting early in 2015, and will be in the market for a new QB.

New England Patriots - The Pats remain the class of the AFC East.  It was a little rocky for Tom and Bill, but they look poised to be at the top of the AFC come January.  Bold Prediction: The Pats make the Superbowl as they secure home field, and Manning has to go back to Foxboro.

                                                                       Courtesy of Gameday Boston

Miami Dolphins - The Dolphins are much improved, but I still think they miss out on the playoffs, fading down the stretch.  There's just a lot of teams in the AFC that they are looking up at for the Wildcard.  Bold Prediction:  Miami make a major run at Jim Harbaugh this offseason, all while Joe Philbin remains the current head coach.

                                                                               Courtesy of SB Nation

Buffalo Bills - The Bills just can't find a QB.  Kyle Orton isn't the long term answer, and EJ can't seem to learn the offense.  They finish close to .500, but again miss out on the playoffs.  Bold Prediction:  The Bills stick with Kyle Orton, when everyone begs them to take a QB in the draft.


                                                                         Courtesy of buffalobills.com

NY Jets - The Jets improve in the 2nd half of the season, but that's only because the 1st half couldn't have been much worse.  Geno Smith is not a serviceable NFL QB, and Michael Vick is little more than a filler.  Rex Ryan's ultimate downfall was that he never found a competent offensive coordinator or QB, when really that's the GM's fault.  Bold Prediction:  The Jets hire a college coach to run the show in New York.

                                                                                 Courtesy of SB Nation
AFC NORTH - This is the best division in football, and the best team is the Cleveland Browns.  That's right, the Browns are in 1st place in the bruising AFC North.  I don't think they'll stay there, but kudos to them for making it this far and being in the playoff hunt.

Cleveland Browns - If you had the Browns in 1st place in November, then congrats you live in Cleveland or you own more than one Manziel jersey.  They've been gritty, but the meat of their schedule is still ahead of them.  Bold Prediction:  Hoyer's contract situation looms longer than it should, and Manziel demands a trade.  With the Browns missing the playoffs, either Hoyer or Manziel won't be in Cleveland in 2015.  A dog house divided against itself cannot stand.


                                                                  Courtesy of Larry Brown Sports

Cincinnati Bengals - Technically, the Bengals are in 2nd place at 6-3-1.  The Bengals know what they have in Andy Dalton, and that's an average QB.  He's not going to get them to the Superbowl with his current play.  Bold Prediction:  Marvin Lewis is fired as the Bengals fail to make the playoffs.  It's been a long time coming and Bengals fans rejoice.

                                                                                   Courtesy of Hinksons
  Pittsburgh Steelers - Big Ben looked unbeatable the last 2 weeks, but he came crashing back down to earth against the Jets.  Antonio Brown has been one of the best receivers in the NFL, and the Steelers look like they could make some noise in the AFC.  Bold Prediction:  The Steelers win the North and end up in the AFC divisional round.

                                                                                 Courtesy of USA Today

Baltimore Ravens - The Ravens have been Jekyll and Hyde all season.  Without a running game to help him out, Flacco hasn't been able to consistently carry the team.  It's hard to rely on Flacco's arm to win them games.  Bold Prediction:  Baltimore makes the playoffs on the last day of the season as the 6 seed and loses to Indy in a blowout in the Wildcard game.

  
                                                                                  Courtesy of SB Nation


AFC SOUTH - This division isn't even close.  Unless Andrew Luck breaks multiple bones, or Houston mysteriously finds a QB, the Colts are winning this division before Black Friday.

Indianapolis Colts - The Colts benefit from playing in the 2nd weakest division in football.  They win the division by multiple games, but still only get the 3 seed, as they struggle against teams who have winning records.  Bold Prediction:  We get a Luck-Manning rematch in Denver that is closer than it should be, but the Colts fall just short, and Reggie Wayne calls it a career.  

                                                                        Courtesy of Big Cat Country

Houston Texans - Houston has a ton of talent, but its a QB league, and they don't have one.  They are a .500 team at best, and they'll be trying to figure out how to get better in the offseason.  Bold Prediction:  Andre Johnson has played his last year in Houston and ends up in a different city in 2015.

                                                                        Courtesy of www.reddit.com

Tennessee Titans - The Titans, like the Texans lack a QB, and they aren't going to compete in the South against Andrew Luck without at least a mid range QB.  The Titans don't look to the draft, but instead to another NFL team for their QB.  Bold Prediction:  The Titans make a major splash by trading for Eli Manning.


                                                           Courtesy of www.zimbio.com

Jacksonville Jaguars - Blake Bortles has had moments of brilliance, but this team has not produced like I thought they would.  It's a process, but Allen Robinson has looked very good before his recent injury ended his season, and Denard Robinson has been a pleasant surprise transitioning to RB.  Bold Prediction:  The Jaguars are the team most likely to move to London, but they won't be the first team to relocate.  Don't hold your breath too long, they'll be in London by 2020.



                                                                         Courtesy of www.reddit.com



AFC WEST - While San Diego looked like the trendy pick to win this division, a blowout loss to Miami, and steady but lackluster performances by Kansas City have shown this is still Denver's division.  Meanwhile, Oakland looks to be securing up the No. 1 overall pick in the 2015 draft.


Denver Broncos - The Broncos have played about like we expected and look poised for a 12-4 type season.  Their problem is going to be when they have to go to Foxboro in January.  It'll be another Manning-Brady showdown with Brady getting the win and heading to Arizona.  Bold Prediction:  Wes Welker retires after this season.

                                                                              Courtesy of Yahoo Sports

Kansas City Chiefs - Andy Reid and Alex Smith have done a very good job in KC.  The Chiefs haven't been elite, but they may be able to sneak into the playoffs with a Wildcard birth.  Bold Prediction:  The Chiefs get the 5 seed, only to go to Pittsburgh and get picked apart by Offensive Coordinator, Todd Haley, the very man they ran out of town.  

                                                        Courtesy of Pittsburgh Sporting News

San Diego Chargers - Phillip Rivers has had a good season, but the Chargers aren't ready for primetime yet.  They finish with a winning record, but just miss out on the playoffs.  Bold Prediction:  San Diego tries to trade for Adrian Peterson in the offseason.

                                                                        Courtesy of www.zimbio.com

Oakland Raiders - With the first pick in the 2015 NFL draft, the Oakland Raiders select....  Oakland is in need of some real play-makers, and namely an elite running back.   McFadden and MJD haven't been a strong tandem this season, and Oakland needs to give Carr some help in the back field.  Bold Prediction:  Oakland throws tons of money at Jon Gruden to get him to come back to the Bay Area.  Gruden turns it down to make smoothies on Monday Night Football.

                                                                   Courtesy of Larry Brown Sports


NFC EAST - This division looked to be a lot worse than it has actually been this season.  Dallas has been the surprise team, and Philly has been steady, but the question still remains if this division will get more than one team in the playoffs.

Philadelphia Eagles - Chip Kelly is an offensive genius.  I don't think Nick Foles or Mark Sanchez are top tier QBs, but in Kelly's offense they don't have to be to win games.  Bold Prediction:  Eagles get the No. 1 overall seed in the NFC East, but fail to make the Superbowl.

                                                                              Courtesy of filmgarb.com

Dallas Cowboys - The Cowboys have been the surprise team of the NFC, as they've been riding the DeMarco Murray train since September.   Romo has spent last few weeks on the Varsity Blues rehab program, and he's been above average all year.  Bold Prediction:  The Cowboys make the playoffs and Garrett keeps his job.

                                                                                   Courtesy of SB Nation

NY Giants - Eli hasn't been terrible this year, but the Giants obviously aren't making the playoffs.  Odell Beckham, Jr. is going to be a star and next year once Cruz comes back they'll be back in the mix.  However, this year they'll see Tom Coughlin and Eli leave The Big Apple.  Bold Prediction:  The Giants effectively end the Eli and Coughlin era, and go searching for a coach and a QB from the college ranks.  David Shaw will get a phone call.

                                                                           Courtesy of CBS New York


Washington Redskins - That RGIII deal doesn't look like the smartest move by the Redskins, and Kirk Cousins doesn't look to be the man in waiting Washington fans thought he would be.  They've struggled since RGIII's rookie year, and I don't think he'll ever be elite.  This Spring the question is what do they address in the draft?  Bold Prediction:  RGIII actually stays healthy for the remainder of the year.  

                                                                                    Courtesy of SB Nation


NFC NORTH - The Lions have finally started playing like the talent they have.  The Packers remain a playoff contender.  The Vikings are clearly letting Teddy Bridgewater mature.  While the Bears, well, the Bears have just been awful.  It's been embarrassing, and that's being kind.

Detroit Lions - They aren't the Motor City Kitties this year.  Stafford is flinging the ball all over the field, and Megatron gain shows why he's the best receiver in football.  This team is for real.  I know they usually fade down the stretch, but I don't think that happens this year.  Bold Prediction:  The Lions win 12 games this year, and the NFC North comes down to week 17 in Green Bay

                                                                                  Courtesy of USA Today

Green Bay Packers - R-E-L-A-X.  That's been the Packers' mantra since week 3.  Well, right now, they better shape up because they aren't in the playoffs according to the standings.  The good news, they'll likely be favored in almost every game going forward.  Bold Prediction:  The Packers win in week 17 and get the No. 2 seed in the NFC.  Detroit drops from No. 2 to No. 5 in the final week of the season.

                                                                                   Courtesy of SB Nation


Minnesota Vikings - This is a maturation process in Minnesota.  No one expected the Vikings to be in playoff contention this year.  The real question everyone has is, when do they get AP back?  AP realizes his clock is ticking to win a title and that's not going to happen in Minnesota.  Bold Prediction:  AP asks to be traded during the offseason, and his offseason draws more attention than any free agent in history not named Peyton Manning.  

                                                                                   Courtesy of SB Nation

Chicago Bears - Mark Trestman will be fired at the end of the year.  You can bank on that.  If he's not, the GM should be fired for not firing him.  This team has been abysmal this season.  They've overpaid Cutler, they are wasting Forte, and I won't even comment on how terrible the defense is.  Bold Prediction:  The Bears hire Rex Ryan to coach their football team in 2015.

                                                             Courtesy of www.chicitysports.com


NFC SOUTH - Barring a complete turnaround by the Panthers and Falcons, this division belongs to the Saints.  That's not to say they are a great team, because they're not, but the NFC South is so bad, they don't have to be great, just mediocre.  Tampa Bay will be drafting a QB early in the draft next year.


New Orleans Saints - The Saints may not finish with a winning record, but they'll still win the South this year.  Every year the Saints don't capitalize on Brees's talent, is another year wasted.  He's likely going to decline with age, so the window they have is very small.  Bold Prediction:  The Saints make it to the NFC Championship Game, unfortunately, it's in Green Bay.

                                                                                     Courtesy of nesn.com

Carolina Panthers - The Panthers are 3-6-1 and 1 game out of first place of their division.  That's almost statistically impossible.  Cam Newton is injured, and clearly he's playing through it.  The offense has been horrific this year, and the defense hasn't been much better.  Bold Prediction:  Carolina resigns Greg Hardy after he's found not guilty, because they have to, not because they want to.

                                                               Courtesy of www.reddit.com

Atlanta Falcons - The Falcons and Panthers should honestly just pack it in and race to the bottom for Todd Gurley.  Both need a change at RB, and Gurley is an immediate game changer.  If you'd told most ATL fans that at the beginning of the season though, they'd have responded like this guy.  Bold Prediction:  Atlanta wins just enough games to hurt themselves by missing on a good player.

                                                          Courtesy of www.gifmocksession.com


Tampa Bay Buccaneers - I thought the Bucs would be bad, but I didn't think they'd be this bad.  Lovie Smith is a good coach, but he hasn't gotten consistent play from his QBs.  They draft in the top 5 in 2015.  Bold Prediction:  Tampa Bay passes on a 1st round QB to the bewilderment (yes I said bewilderment) of every Bucs fan.

                                                                                   Courtesy of SB Nation


NFC WEST - This division is the most difficult to figure out, especially after the Carson Palmer injury.  The Cardinals have been stellar all year, but with Stanton taking the helm, no one knows if they'll continue on the same path.  The Seahawks and 49ers are in the mix as well, while the Rams have been the victims of the worst QB injury bug in recent memory.


Arizona Cardinals - It's tough to gauge how this team is going to do going forward.  They have a 2 game lead on Seattle and 3 game lead on San Fran, but they have a brutal schedule going forward.  It's a complete toss up.  Bold Prediction:  The Cards win the West, but just barely and lock down the No. 3 seed.  

                                                                    Courtesy of www.azcentral.com

Seattle Seahawks - Seattle is still a very good team, but they don't have the same magic they had last year.  They dug themselves too deep of a hole at the beginning of the year and miss out on the playoffs.  Bold Prediction:  The Seahawks move Marshawn Lynch and make a play for Andre Johnson in the offseason.

                                                                                   Courtesy of SB Nation

San Francisco 49ers - The 49ers and Jim Harbaugh miss out on the postseason for the first time since they got together 4 years ago.  The 49ers haven't been the same dominant team, due largely to Willis, Bowman, and Smith being absent from the defense.  They miss out on the playoffs this year, and Harbaugh and the Niners part ways.  Bold Prediction:  The Niners make  a rather dull hire and return to being a mediocre football team.  Sorry, Niner fans.

                                                                                    Courtesy of Fan Sided

St. Louis Rams - Unless your team plays in the NFC West, you have to feel horrible for the Rams.  They can't catch a break.  This is likely the end of the Sam Bradford era, and I don't think they'll ever win consistently with Jeff Fisher.  He was overrated at Tennessee, and should have been fired from there years before he was let go.  Bold Prediction:  The Rams move to LA by 2018.  I don't know how bold that is, but they won't be in St. Louis for many more years.

                                                                                          Courtesy of ESPN


I'm fairly confident virtually none of these predictions will come true (with the exception of the Rams moving back to LA), but there's no excitement or fun in just reverberating what all the sports talk shows are projecting.  Enjoy the rest of the season, because February will here before you know it.


Saturday, November 1, 2014

SEC Mid-Season Predictions

                                                                         Courtesy of SEC

Well we're a little over halfway through the season, and it's been unpredictable to say the least.  The first ever College Football Playoff poll came out Tuesday, and if you had Mississippi State and Ole Miss in the top 4, you're a damn liar.  We've got another month left of the regular season, and Fall, which had been absent all September and October, made a strong appearance this morning, with snow and ice covering multiple areas of the South.  So, let's get to predictions for each of the SEC schools going forward.


                                                                         Courtesy of Bleacher Report

Alabama:  I predicted at the beginning of the season that Bama would go 11-1 and win the SEC West, at this point they are still on pace for that to happen.  Bama had a slip up in Oxford, much to delight of Ole Miss fans everywhere, and they struggled against Arkansas, but they followed that up with a thumping of Texas A&M.  They have 3 tough games remaining:  at LSU, and Mississippi State and Auburn at home.  Their toughest game is in Baton Rouge, and that crowd is going to be well lubricated and loud, but I think they get all 3 done and finish the season 11-1 and get into the playoff.  


                                                                       Courtesy of Focused Distortion

Arkansas:  The Razorbacks have looked much improved this year, but still haven't been able to break through and get their first SEC win under Bret.   They've been so close against A&M and Bama, but a loss is a loss.  They head to Starkvegas this weekend, and their woes are likely to continue.  Then they get LSU and Ole Miss at home, and finish the season at Mizzou.  They have to win 2 of those 4 games to get bowl eligible.  I don't see how that happens.  I think they finish 4-8/5-7 at best and miss out on another bowl.  Bret is building something though and that line and run game is getting better, but they're still not ready for SEC play. 




Auburn:  The War Eagle/Tigers/Plainsmen aren't as good as last year's team, but they are still in the top 3 in college football as of today.  They head to Oxford this evening with a loser goes home match.  They barely escaped at home last week, when the Head Ball Coach threw the kitchen sink at the Tigers.  They have a tough road left, with games at Oxford, at Athens, and at Tuscaloosa. That's Brutal.  I don't think there's any way they finish the season with one loss and get into the playoff.  They'll still get a huge bowl game though and they'll be playing in a warm weather bowl.  Bowl prediction:  Outback Bowl.


                                                                             Courtesy of Bon The Ball

Florida:  The Gators are currently beating the hell out of Georgia in the Cocktail Party.  It's a must win game for Muschamp.  Even with a win here today, he has to get them to 7 wins at best to keep his job and that's going to be tough.  He's not a bad football coach, but he doesn't have an offense, and his defense can't stop everyone every week.  Florida currently sits at 3-3 (Idaho was cancelled), and they have to win at least 3 more games with Georgia, Vandy, South Carolina, Eastern Kentucky, and FSU on the schedule.  They'll need at least 2 upsets to make a bowl, but even if they do, Muschamp may still be gone.  I think they beat Vandy, and Eastern Kentucky, and it looks like they'll get an upset against Georgia.  Prediction:  6-6 and the Belk Bowl.  I don't know if that's enough to save Muschamp, but I think a new OC would certainly help their program rather than a new head coach.

                                                                

                                                                            Courtesy of Bleacher Report

Georgia:  The Bulldogs pretty much have to fall apart to lose the SEC East.  If you're a Georgia fan you can start making reservations in Atlanta for December 6th.  The question still remains, who are you going to play?  There's a large number of possibilities, but Gurley should be back by then, and he's the best player in college football.  For UGA to get into the playoff they have to win in Atlanta, and the odds of that will depend on who they play.  I don't think they'll beat a team from the West, but they'll get a nice bowl game as a consolation.  Bowl Prediction:  Peach Bowl.



                                                                                   Courtesy of USA Today


Kentucky:  The Wildcats gave Mississippi State all they could handle last week, but couldn't get over the hump.  An impressive start sees them sitting at 5-3 with games at Mizzou, Georgia at home, at Tennessee, and at Louisville.  They only need one more win to get into a bowl, but that's not an easy road.  I'm sorry Kentucky, but you're not going to be favored in any of those games.  The one shot is in Knoxville, and I don't think the Vols are going to let you come into their house and beat them this year.  Kentucky has a disappointing finish and goes 5-7, missing out on a bowl.



                                                                                Courtesy of Fan Sided

LSU:  Look, ummm.....hats off to LSU last week.  They played better than the Rebels and won the game.  They aren't a playoff team, but they're a lot better than they were in September.  That place was loud last week in Death Valley.  I literally walked to the car with my fiancee in total silence at the end of that game.  At least I fared better than the Ole Miss football is my life girl, which if you haven't seen that video, just YouTube Ole Miss Girl and enjoy.  LSU plays Bama close but gets 1 more loss to finish the year at 9-3.  Bowl Prediction: Gator Bowl


                                                                                       Courtesy of Reddit

Mississippi State:  This is difficult for me to write, but Mississippi State is for real.  They're a very good football team.  I still don't think they're the best team in the country, but they're a very good team.  They have 2 big games left, both on the road, at Bama and at Ole Miss.  I don't think they win either of those games.  If the games were in Starkville, I'd say they have a shot against Bama and would be favored against Ole Miss, but both those games are on the road.  The Egg Bowl home team might as well get 14 points, because that's how big the home field advantage is.  State finishes 10-2 and Dak goes to NYC.  I don't think he wins the Heisman, but he definitely deserves to be invited to NYC.  Bowl Prediction:  Cotton Bowl



                                                               Courtesy of Columbia Missourian

Mizzou:  The Tigers are 6-2 with remaining games at home against Kentucky, at College Station, at Tennessee, and Arkansas at home.  I honestly have no idea how those games will play out.  They could go 4-0, or 1-3.  I think they finish 2nd in the East with a respectable season, but if they go 4-0 and Georgia slips up they could surprise some people and make the East race very interesting.  Bowl Prediction:  Music City Bowl


                                                                                          Courtesy of WCBI

Ole Miss:  The Rebels, including myself, got brought back down to earth with the loss in Baton Rouge last week.  Then they got a shot of adrenaline in the arm on Tuesday, saying they were the 4th best team in football.  I don't know if that's true, but one thing they do have going for them is their schedule.  They get Auburn at home tonight, go to Arkansas, and then get State at home.  They're favored in all 3 of those games.  If they can get past Auburn tonight, they'll likely play State for the right to go to Atlanta.  Call me a homer if you want, but I think this is their year.  They've been mediocre to bad for a half century and with LSU down, and having beat Bama already, this is their best shot.  That loss at LSU didn't hurt their chances as they still control their own destiny.  I think they beat Auburn tonight and then beat Arkansas and State for the first ever visit to Atlanta for the Rebels.  I already said I don't think Georgia beats the team from the West and I'll stand by that.  It's a home game for the Bulldogs, but Ole Miss gets the win and goes to the playoff along with Bama.  

                                                                                  Courtesy of Fox Sports

South Carolina:  Boy was I wrong about the Gamecocks.  The only way they are getting to 11 wins this year is if they were to count their Spring Game and practices as wins.  That having been said, they're improving.  They need 2 more wins to get bowl eligible and play at home at Tennessee, at Florida, at home against South Alabama, and then finish the year at Clemson.  They'll get at least 2 more wins, but this is clearly a rebuilding year for South Carolina.  Bowl Prediction:  Capitol One Bowl as the Gamecocks go dancing in Florida.

                                                                                Courtesy of The Big Lead

Tennessee:  I originally thought Butch Jones would start show significant strides this year, but Tennessee just hasn't progressed like I thought they would.  They are 3-5 right now, with games at South Carolina, Kentucky at home, Missouri at home, and Vandy on the road.  That's going to be tough to win 3 games with that schedule.  I've gone back and forth about this, but I think Tennessee pulls an upset along the way and goes to a bowl.  Bowl Prediction:  Liberty Bowl and Tennessee fans are living it up on Beale Street

                                                                           Courtesy of Gamedayr

Texas A&M:  The Aggies looked fantastic after that beat down in the first game in Columbia, but after getting taken to the woodshed against Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Bama, and barely beating ULM at home today, they clearly aren't a very good team.  They'll make a bowl, but it's not the kind worth paying Kevin Sumlin $5 million a year.  By the way, if you didn't see the throwback helmets for A&M today, they were sick.  Bowl Prediction:  Texas Bowl

                                                                                  Courtesy of USA Today

Vanderbilt:  How much you want to bet I can throw a football over them mountains? In all seriousness, there is no chance Vandy make a bowl game.  If they're lucky, they beat Old Dominion.  James Franklin left the cupboard bear when he went to Penn State, and Derek Mason is going to have a tough job going forward.  They play ODU at home, Florida at home, then at Mississippi State, and finish the season hosting the Vols.  If they get to 4 wins, I'd be shocked.  

                                                                                           Courtesy of ESPN


So the SEC gets 2 teams in the Playoff, in Ole Miss and Bama.  FSU could slip up, but it's likely they are getting in as well, and then the final spot is up for grabs.  I'd say Michigan State has the easiest path, but if Oregon wins out they'll get in.  It's going to be a fun November.