This is the time of year where NFL fans check their phones and tablets constantly for updates on what their team is doing in terms of free agency and existing roster contract negotiations. So, let's take a look at what NFL teams and players should be doing in the coming months.
1. Dallas Cowboys - America's Team shocked everyone last year by winning the NFC East. Now they've got 2 big questions to answer this Spring. Firstly, they franchised Dez Bryant, which was the right, if not popular, thing to do. He's a Top 2 WR in the NFL. You do not let him walk out the building. He's a future Hall of Fame WR at the rate he is going. In the meantime you try and get a long term deal done.
Secondly, what do you do with Demarco Murray? He's 27 years old and in the last 2 years he has rushed for over 1,000 yards each season, with a phenomenal 1,845 yards last year on nearly 400 carries. You basically have 2 options:
1. Sign him to a 3-4 year deal.
Pros: The last two years he has been elite. The Cowboys are running the ball more, with great success, and if you lean on him, you have a chance to get to and win a Super Bowl. Tony Romo's window is very narrow, and you don't want to have to start all over again with a new RB and go back to an 8-8 type year because you can't run the football. He has a great O-line to run behind, and by running the ball you keep your Defense which has some major holes off the field.
Cons: Statistics show that when RBs have an elite year where they run the ball for that many yards on that many carries, they have a substantial drop off the following year. Adrian Peterson ran for 2,097 yards in 2012 and 1,266 in 2013. His carries also went from 348 to 279. Still, those are good numbers, but he went down 800 yards! Chris Johnson ran for 2,006 yards on 358 carries in 2009 and 1,364 on 316 carries in 2010. Again, a major drop off in yards, because those kinds of numbers are hard to sustain. He's also 27 and that's generally when RBs start to decline.
2. Don't resign him.
If you go this route, you basically have 2 choices: bring in someone like Adrian Peterson for a short term or try and go and get a top RB in the draft and hope he pans out for the next 3-4 years.
What should Dallas do? I think the Cowboys will probably resign Murray, and that's the safe move. It would be wise for Murray to resign because he's likely not going to play behind an O-line as good as he has in Dallas. He's got an elite QB, an elite WR, and plays in a dome against the NFC East, which has questionable defenses.
If they don't resign Murray, it's because they think they can work out a trade for Adrian Peterson. Minnesota owns Peterson. He is not going anywhere without the OK from the Vikings and he will be 30 in 2 weeks. While that's not good, this guy is a freak athlete and he had the benefit of being hit only 21 times all of last season, all while being able to train and get healthy. Dallas has a very small window here. If I'm Peterson, I know I'm at the end of my career and there is ZERO chance I win a Super Bowl in Minnesota. If I was him I'd demand a trade to Dallas, Denver, Indy, or New England. You'd finish out your career with a chance to win a Super Bowl with an elite QB.
2. Oakland Raiders - The Raiders have been rebuilding since 2003, and this could be the last time GM Reggie Mckenzie has the ability to draft and sign players, so he's got to hit multiple home runs.
As for the draft, they are and should take a WR, be it Amari Cooper or Kevin White. But here's what they should do before the draft.
1. Go get Ndamukong Suh
This guy is mean, nasty, and he's a beast. He was born to be an Oakland Raider. He would sure up the defense and give Peyton Manning and Phillip Rivers nightmares. The Raiders have the money to spend and they can offer Suh more than almost anyone in the league.
2. Sign Andre Johnson/Brandon Marshall
Before they sign a WR like Amari Cooper or Kevin White, they need to make sure they have a veteran WR to help bring the rookie along. Marshall will be 31 in 3 weeks and Chicago wants to move him, though they are idiots for doing so. Johnson will be 34 by the time the season starts. Both would be great to bring Cooper/White along .
Maybe I'm wrong, but once Manning leaves Denver, I think the balance of power in the West shifts and Oakland becomes a team to be feared.
3. Indianapolis Colts - The Colts certainly have the right logo. They go from having a 1st ballot HOF QB to having a 1st ballot HOF QB and miss out on the playoffs for 1 year in what is likely going to be a 30 year span. That having been said, their defense needs some help, and need to give Luck a running game.
1. Go after an elite RB
Whether it be Adrian Peterson or Demarco Murray, the Colts were 1 game away from the Super Bowl. Luck has gotten better every year, all without the help of a RB. If they get a game changer at RB, they could be representing the AFC in Super Bowl 50.
2. Strengthen your defense
The Colts really want Suh, but if they don't get him, don't be surprised to see them go after Greg Hardy. Hardy will be 27 when the season starts and he's an elite pass rusher. Adding him to your Defense would certainly help in January.
4. Green Bay Packers - After one of the worst 2nd half collapses in Playoff history, the Packers are looking back at what might have been. If you're on the Green Bay staff, you should be embarrassed. Still, you've got the best QB in football and you are going to go to the Playoffs every year until he starts to fade. Here's what you need to do to ensure you get to Super Bowl 50.
1. Let Randall Cobb walk
You know why Randall Cobb is good? Because he has Aaron Rodgers throwing to him. If Alex Smith was his QB, he'd have 700 yards and 2 TDs a season. Rodgers is like Manning and Brady. He makes average WRs look heroic. Go spend that money on a pass rusher or on the secondary. Davnate Adams will have huge numbers if he's the No. 2 guy in Green Bay next year.
2. Get Aaron Rodgers some protection
In the 2014 season, Rodgers was running for his life, and he was also hurt in 2013. The Packers have the chance to win more Super Bowls with Rodgers, but they have to protect him. It's not a great year for Offensive linemen in free agency, but the Packers need to do everything they can to protect their most valuable asset for the foreseeable future. Whether that means resigning Bulaga and/or going and getting another tackle, they need to give Rodgers time to throw.
5. Jacksonville Jaguars - The Jags need to get Blake Bortles some help. It seems like they are going to let Cecil Shorts walk, so they need to address the WR and RB position. The number one problem for the Jags is this.
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1. You Don't Spend Any Money!
You're dead last in the league in money spent in 2015. You know what you were in 2014? Last! You know what you were in 2013? Last! You want to know why you've won 9 games in 3 years? It's because you're cheap and you don't get good players because you don't pay anyone decent money. Go out there and get a decent RB. Make an offer to Demarco Murray, Adrian Peterson, or CJ Spiller. Give Bortles someone to shoulder the load until he gets accustomed to life in the NFL.
2. Go get Mike Wallace
Miami is going to let him go. You have money to spend. If you let Shorts walk, you have Allen Robinson and a bunch of dudes. Go get a legit WR in Mike Wallace, and renegotiate his deal, so it's not outrageous. He can stay in Florida with no state income tax and be a field stretcher for Bortles. Signing Wallace gives Jacksonville a chance to be a decent team in a relatively weak AFC South.
6. Denver Broncos - "Losing Faith in my team." Congrats Broncos fans, Peyton is back for at least 1 more year. DO NOT waste this season. You have the narrowest window in the NFL to win a championship. Give him some help.
1. You need an elite RB
Denver needs to pray Dallas or Minnesota is dumb enough to let Murray/Peterson walk out of that building. If they do, spend whatever it takes to get him. You are not winning a Super Bowl on Peyton's arm alone. He needs someone to carry the load. If you can't get one of those guys, go get Spiller and pray he stays healthy.
2. Sure up your secondary
If you get to the playoffs you have to worry about 2 big arm QBs, Luck and Brady. You need an elite secondary to stop both of those guys. Either Revis or McCourty will probably not be in New England next year. If you have a chance to get one of those guys...do it. Manning took a $4 million pay cut for you to be able to spend money on players to get him back to a Super Bowl, you'll have the next 4 years to cut costs. This is your time, don't blow it.
7. Carolina Panthers - Lastly, the Carolina Panthers. Dave Gettleman has made some brilliant and questionable decisions since becoming the Panthers General Manager. He signed Greg Olsen through the 2018 season today, brilliant. He also cut Steve Smith last season, questionable (and that's being kind, it was stupid). The Panthers would have won the South easily with Steve Smith Sr. and Kelvin Benjamin as your WRs. Gettleman is not going to break the bank in free agency, but here's where he can make some moves to help the Panthers.
1. Wide Receivers named Kenny Britt or Cecil Shorts
Gettleman has famously said, we're not shopping at The Dollar Store, but we're not shopping at Tiffany's either. He's not going to spend the money on Randall Cobb or Torrey Smith, so let's just get that out of the way. Britt, who is 26, and Shorts who is 27, can both stretch the field and play on the outside and you can get them for a decent amount of money. I think the Panthers likely go after Britt and he becomes a legit No. 2 WR while Cotchery and Philly Brown share the No. 3 role.
2. Offensive Line
I've struggled with this for a while and here's why. The Panthers could easily double dip and go Offensive line in the 1st and 2nd round, the way they did with DT in 2013, and you've got your LT and RT for the next 5 years. However, if you miss, you've wasted a running QBs athletic talent for another year.
So, the safe move is to sign an OT to possibly play LT or RT this year and then spend your 1st/2nd round pick on the tackle at the other position. Michael Oher came in to Charlotte last week and if Carolina liked him, they would have offered him a deal. The fact nothing has been done yet doesn't bode well, and while I'd personally love to have him in Charlotte, his best days are probably behind him. I think Oher would be a decent RT and then you spend your 1st round pick on a LT to start right away. If they don't sign Oher, I wouldn't be surprised to see Carolina go after Joseph Barksdale from St. Louis. He's a very good run blocker, but struggles to pass protect. He'd be a good RT, but they'd almost have to go LT in the 1st round to give Newton some protection. The other option is Jeremy Parnell from Dallas, who would be your starting RT, but based on his play, Jerry probably isn't letting him out of the building. Gettleman doesn't draft based on positions of need, but he may not have a choice come April.
