Sunday, December 28, 2014

NFL Coaching Changes That Will Be Made Tomorrow

                                                       Courtesy of coacheshotseat.com


Everyone hates to see people get let go.  Well, not everyone, but most people.  It affects far more than just the coaches, but it's part of the job and these guys all know it going into their profession.  So, let's take a look at coaches who likely won't be with their teams at 5 o'clock tomorrow.



                                                   Courtesy of info.funniestmemesever.com


JIM HARBAUGH - This one is an absolute guarantee.  You can bet your house, your car, and your 2nd wife's ring on the fact that Jim Harbaugh will not be the coach of the San Francisco 49ers on Monday.  It's been talked about all year.  The 49ers are absolutely fed up with the fact they've been to 3 straight NFC Championship games, a Super Bowl, and a 48-22-1 record.   The big difference between normal dismissals and this situation is that most coaches are fired for losing games, rather than just being difficult to deal with.  The reports are that Harbaugh is likely headed to Michigan, and I for one can't wait to see the rivalry between Pope Urban and Harbaugh.  If you're wondering what Jim Harbaugh's house is going to look like tomorrow, when he becomes the highest paid coach in all of football, here's a preview.


                                                                        Courtesy of CBSSports.com




 
                                                                         Courtesy of CBS New York


REX RYAN - This little piggy is not going to be the Jets coach on Monday.   Rex Ryan has, in my opinion, always been a little bit overrated as a head coach, but he's a great defensive coordinator.  Why he couldn't bring in a good offensive coordinator to help match those defenses I'll never know, but that probably says more about John Idzik than Rex.  Both should be fired tomorrow, and the Jets will need a complete overhaul.  New GM, new head coach, new QB.  I wouldn't be surprised to see them look to the college ranks for a coach to rejuvenate their franchise.  Rex is going to either be a star defensive coordinator somewhere next year, or possibly a head coach again in say some place like...



                                                                     Courtesy of Linksservice.com

MARK TRESTMAN - Trestman has not been very good in Chicago.  Blame Cutler all you want, and he likely won't be there either come the 2015 season, but Trestman and his staff will all likely be let go along with the GM.  I still can't fathom why the Bears let Lovie Smith go.  When the Bears have been good, they have won with stellar defense, and a conservative offense, so this move from the start confused a lot of people.  Rex Ryan's dad, Buddy, was the architect behind the 85 Bears Defense, which let's face it was probably the greatest defense to ever step foot on a field.  If the Bears are smart they'll hire him as their Defensive Coordinator, but they may go one step up and hire him as their new head coach.

                                                             Courtesy of the NewsTribune.com

GUS BRADLEY - The Jaguars made a move for Blake Bortles, and are still expected to draft very early in 2015 as they only have 3 wins.  Bradley is 7-24 so far in two seasons with the Jags, and that's just abysmal.  The owner may shock everyone by not makign a change, but this is a franchise that desperately needs a shot in the arm, before they move to London.  



                                                                        Courtesy of CBSSports.com

JOE PHILBIN - Miami is going to miss out on the playoffs again.  After last year's ultimate collapse, the Dolphins put Philbin on a very short leash, and he hasn't been able to get them to the playoffs in his tenure there.  The Dolphins have made the playoffs just once in the last 13 years.  They believe they have a franchise QB under center, and will look to change pace by getting a new head coach starting tomorrow.


                                                                                   Courtesy of SFBay.ca


TONY SPARANO - Ok, first of all this picture isn't of Tony Sparano.  It's of Raiders owner, Mark Davis.  How do you take a guy with that haircut seriously during a job interview?  Anyways, Tony Sparano was never expected to be back as he was just holding the spot after Dennis Allen was fired.  He didn't do a terrible job, but when you're an interim head coach, anything south of making the playoffs means you are not coming back next year.  The Raiders still remain in the mix for Harbaugh, but it looks more and more like he's headed to Michigan.  So, you can bet they will back up a dump truck full of money to Jon Gruden's house to get him to come back to Oakland.  





 COACHES EVERYONE THINK WILL BE FIRED BUT PROBABLY WON'T



                                                                            Courtesy of Gifsoup.com
                                  

MIKE SMITH - If the Falcons lose to Carolina this afternoon, you can bet Mike Smith will not be their coach on Monday.  Reports are even if the Falcons win, if they don't win a playoff game (likely against Arizona who has a starting QB that has as many TD passes as I do), that Smith will be gone.  This is going to be a hard fought game, and as I spoke about in the last post, the winner of this game, should beat the Cardinals next week.  So, there's a very very very good chance Mike Smith will not be fired this year.  Falcons fans are torn on this decision, but if they lose to the Panthers today, expect the Falcons to call Jimmy Sexton regarding what interest Nick Saban would have on being their new coach.



                                                      Courtesy of NationalSportJournal.com
         

TOM COUGHLIN - There hasn't been a lot of reports that Tom Coughlin is going to be let go after this season.  He has 2 Super Bowl rings, and will almost certainly be a first ballot Hall of Famer as a coach.  Coughlin has indicated he wants to coach next season, and the Giants organization is likely going to let him go out on his own terms.  If he's back that likely means Eli will be back as well, and next year that Eli to Odell show should be a lot of fun to watch.   


                                                              Courtesy of Smug Fantasy Football

DOUG MARRONE - The Bills don't have a QB, and likely will have to go draft or trade for another one in 2015.  They'll miss out on the playoffs again for the 15th straight year.   That's the longest streak in the NFL.  Still, they've built a good defense, have good young talent at the WR position, and if they can get a serviceable QB under center, that should get them over the hump.   Marrone will be on the hot seat going into 2015, but he should get one more year.  That having been said, there's almost always one firing surprise every year, and if I had to pick one, this one would be my pick, especially if they lose today to a Patriots team that already has home field advantage locked up and finish 8-8.


                                                                            Courtesy of Gifatron.com

JEFF FISHER - I don't get why people think Jeff Fisher is such a great coach.   He's a decent coach, I'll give you that, but his overall record is 167-152-1.  That sounds pretty good, until you look and see that the last time he had a winning season was 2008.  He's had terrible luck with injuries at QB, so that's likely why he's gotten a pass, but at some point you have to start seeing some results.


                                                                 Courtesy of Usatthebiglead.com

JAY GRUDEN - A month ago, everyone on the planet would have said Gruden would be one and done in Washington.  Now, people aren't so sure.  I think, surprisingly, both he and RGIII will be back next year, but both will be on a short leash.  Gruden will have to work extensively with RGIII in the Spring and Summer to get him ready for 2015, because if they don't make the playoffs next year, he's definitely gone. 













Monday, December 15, 2014

Why The NFC South is the Most Intriguingly Bad Division In Football



If you have not been following the NFC South this year, it's largely because you only watch teams with winning records.  If you have been following the NFC South, then your pharmacist and liquor store clerk are on a first name basis with you.  As of this post the Carolina Panthers at an astonishing 5-8-1 are in first place in the division, depending on what happens in the Windy City tonight between the Road Warrior Saints and the Chicago Cubs, I mean Bears.  If the Saints win they have a half game lead on the Panthers, and if they lose they'll be a half game behind tied with the Falcons.  It will certainly be interesting as the QB from Santa Claus takes on the Homeless Santa Claus.  



                                                                      Courtesy of We Love NOLA

Tampa Bay fans are officially looking at 2015 Mock Drafts, while the remaining 3 teams, somehow get to host a playoff game against a host of teams we'll cover tonight in a variety of scenarios.  So let's get to them.

                                                                         Courtesy of Newslocker.com

NEW ORLEANS

If NOLA wins out, they're in.  Plain and Simple.  Just win baby.  If they lose tonight, then things get a little murky.  Let's take a look at their schedule:

Week 15             Saints vs. Bears            in Chicago
Week 16             Falcons vs. Saints         in New Orleans 
Week 17             Saints vs. Bucs              in Tampa Bay

The Saints historically have not been very good on the road, but this year they haven't been very good at home either.  With news coming out of Chicago this week that the Bears' Offensive Coordinator privately ripped Jay Cutler, then openly admitted his comments to the team it certainly looks good for the Saints.   The Saints then look for revenge against the Falcons after a Week 1 loss in the Georgia Dome, and finish up the regular season in Tampa Bay.  A win tonight and they're in the driver's seat the rest of the way.

                                                                              Courtesy of ABC News

CAROLINA PANTHERS

As for the Panthers, Jerry Richardson would be wise to hire a driver for Cam Newton for the rest of his tenure in Charlotte.  How he got out of this with minimal injuries should be an advertisement for Ford Motor Company.  Derek Anderson played very well this weekend and the Panthers gutted out their 2nd straight win against the Bucs.  The Panthers need the Saints to lose tonight, and if they do, they'll control their own destiny.  

Week 16                      Browns vs. Panthers               in Charlotte
Week 17                      Panthers vs. Falcons               in Atlanta

After the way Johnny Football played this week, the Panthers defense has got to be smiling going into the game against the Browns.  But, things change week to week and he can't be much worse than he was against the Bengals when his QB rating was a 1.  The Panthers then head to Atlanta for the season-ender against the Dirty Birds.  That game will be a lot tougher.  

                                                                 Courtesy of standingsports.com

ATLANTA FALCONS

The Fighting Julio Joneses, I mean Atlanta Falcons, dropped out of first place this week, with a loss to the Steelers.  Jones sat with a hip injury and they are clearly not the same team without him.  The Falcons are in 3rd place right now, but believe it or not, still control their own destiny.  Here's how.

Week 16                             Falcons vs. Saints               in New Orleans
Week 17                             Panthers vs. Falcons          in Atlanta

The Falcons play their final 2 games against the Saints and the Panthers.  Win both of those, and they are in.  If they beat New Orleans and Carolina, regardless if the Saints win tonight, they'd at least be tied with NOLA and they'll have the tie breaker over the Saints by winning both head to head games.  Even if Carolina beats Cleveland, the Falcons would have a better record against them as well if they beat the Panthers in the Georgia Dome.  If they lose against New Orleans next week though, they'll need some serious help by beating Carolina in Week 17 and cheering for the Bears, Browns, and Bucs.  

                                                                     Courtesy of samchiminti.com

So why is the NFC South so intriguing despite all being WELL UNDER .500?  Well, it has to do with who they'll play if they win the division.  The NFC South winner is locked into the 4 seed. So that means they'll face the 5 seed in the Wild Card Round of the Playoffs.  Right now that means they'd play the Seattle Seahawks, and though that sounds like a guaranteed loss, it's not as certain as it might sound.

                                                                             Courtesy of fieldgulls.com

THINGS OUT WEST

The Seahawks are sitting one game behind the No. 1 seed Arizona Cardinals, who clinched a playoff spot this week when Philly lost to Dallas.  On a side note, Bruce Arians deserves coach of the year and it's not even close.  Seattle plays Arizona on Sunday night in the desert, then finish the season at home against the Rams.  They'll be favored in both games and should win both which would bump them from the No. 5 seed to the No. 1 seed, regardless if the Cards beat the 49ers, because Seattle would have the tie breaker over Arizona.

                                                                           Courtesy of AZcentral.com

Arizona finishes their last two games at home against Seattle then at San Francisco.  Neither one of those are easy, but the 49ers are so ready to get to 2015 that they may just look for a better draft pick.  Unless the Rams pull an upset in the Pacific Northwest, the game in the desert this week will determine who gets home field advantage.

                                                                                        Courtesy of AP.org

THE BATTLE FOR THE NORTH

Up in the North the Lions are in first place after beating Minnesota and watching the Packers get upset by Buffalo.  The Lions go to Chicago this week and finish the year at Lambeau, while the Packers head to Tampa Bay this week before the Lions come to town.  It will likely all come down to next week in the Frozen Tundra based on the Lions win against Green Bay earlier this year, but Philly is hoping for upsets by the Bears and Bucs for a chance to get in as they sit one game back at 9-5.  



The NFC EAST PICTURE

Philly plays the Redskins on the road this week....Spoiler Alert - WIN, and then goes to New York to play the Giants which has upset written all over it.  The Eagles will be hoping the Packers beat the Lions in Lambeau since the Packers have the tie breaker over the Eagles via a blowout loss last month.  That would match them up with their record against the Lions/Cowboys/Seahawks for that final spot.  Sanchez has not looked impressive, and Eagles fans are going to absolutely lose it if they miss out on the playoffs because of his play down the stretch. 

Dallas is in the driver's seat in the NFC East with their big win last night against Philly.  They get Indy at home this week....ugh that's going to be tough, then go to Washington to close out the year.  Again, win both games and their in.  If not, it will depend how Philly does.  So let's get to the most likely scenario if everything goes chalk for the NFC.  



WHO IS MOST LIKELY TO BE PLAYING IN JANUARY?

The winner of the NFC South will most likely get the following team, Arizona.   Here's why. 

Arizona beat Philly head to head and they have 11 wins as of today.  Even if they were to lose to Seattle and San Fran they'd get in over Philly, since Philly only has 9 wins with 2 to go.  The Cards also have a head to head win over Dallas, plus they're already guaranteed a spot in the playoffs.  

Detroit, which will likely be the No. 6 seed didn't play Dallas or Philly, so you go to in conference wins for the next tie breaker.  They have 8 wins against NFC opponents with 2 more chances to get conference wins.  Philly only has 5 with 2 games left to play, so they're out, and Dallas only has 6 wins against the conference with 1 game less to play, so they're out.  Simple math.  Meaning the NFC East is likely only going to get 1 team in the playoffs.

Green Bay should destroy Tampa this week and I'd be shocked if they lost to Detroit at Lambeau with the North Championship on the line.  But let's say they do.  If they do, that would put Green Bay likely as the 5 or 6 seed.  They have 7 in conference wins with 2 conference games left and a head to head win over Philly.  So Philly is not beating Green Bay for the last playoff spot, short of a miracle.  

How about Dallas?  Dallas and Green Bay didn't play this year so you go to conference record.  Dallas has 6 wins with 1 left, while Green Bay has 7 wins with 2 left and one of those is against Tampa Bay.  So again, Dallas is likely not getting in if they don't win the division, with 1 exception.  See below.  


WHAT IF ARIZONA WINS THE WEST AND SEATTLE GETS THE WILDCARD?

The Seahawks beat the Packers and Eagles head to head, so if it comes down to one of those two teams, they are in.  But, they lost to the Cowboys so if the 10-4 Cowboys and the 10-4 Seahawks finish tied for the last wildcard spot, Dallas goes.  Seattle and Detroit didn't play this year so you go to conference record.  Seattle has 8 wins with 2 games conference games left and so does Detroit, so that is up in the air.



MOST LIKELY SCENARIO

Seattle should win the West and get the No. 1 overall seed.  The winner of the North would likely be the No. 2 seed, which I predict will be Green Bay.   Dallas barring a complete Romo-like meltdown should win the East as long as they beat Washington in the final game for the 3 seed.   That leaves either New Orleans, Carolina, or Atlanta for the No. 4 seed.  While Arizona gets the 5 and Detroit get the 6 seed.  


SO FINALLY, WHY IS THE NO. 4 SEED IMPORTANT?

Because of who you get to play.  Arizona beat Detroit already this year, and they are a game ahead of them, so even if they lose out, if Detroit doesn't beat Green Bay, Arizona is the No. 5 seed.  

The NFC South champs would be thrilled because if you get Arizona who has severe questions at QB to come into NOLA, Charlotte, or Atlanta, I think you have to favor the home team.  Carolina's defense has much improved the last couple weeks, and even if Newton doesn't play they have a capable back up in Anderson.  New Orleans despite their ups and downs this year, can still put up a ton of points in that dome and if it gets into a track meet, I don't think Arizona can keep up.  Atlanta with a healthy Julio Jones at home is also a very tough team to beat, and can put up some points, and they've already beaten the Cards in Georgia once this year.  The NFC South champ should be praying Seattle beats Arizona and that they get them the Cards in the 1st round. 

So, despite how terrible the NFC South has looked this year, they could make it to the divisional round.  The problem is they'll have to likely go to Seattle after that win, and that's not going to be pretty.