Championship Saturday & SEC Bowl Projections

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Ok before we get started on games, December 5th is Krampus Day.  Krampus is basically the Alpine nightmare counter to Santa Claus, who wreaks havoc upon naughty children.  He is very popular in Germany, Austria, and parts of Switzerland, where they hold Krampusnacht, whereby people dressed as Krampus, fueled by schnapps and beer, parade up and down the streets terrorizing those who have been terrible human beings this year.  Look for him tonight outside the athletic departments of Georgia and LSU.  


So, now that you won't be able to sleep this evening, let's take a look at the Championship games being played today and where each SEC Team might be headed.

                                                       Courtesy of fansided.com

SEC Championship

Florida
Alabama   -17

If Alabama loses this game, its because the game is officially fixed.  I feel like this Bama team could run the ball 75 times and never throw it and still cover the spread against Florida.  Florida might be the worst 10-2 power 5 team in college football right now.  They've struggled ever since Will Grier has had to sit out, barely beating Florida Atlantic and getting destroyed by Florida State.  I think Derrick Henry runs for at least 150 yards today and Bama wins 31-6.  

                                                             Courtesy of s3.amazonaws.com

PAC 12 Championship

USC
Stanford     -4

Stanford absolutely gritted out a win against Notre Dame last week.  They've got 2 losses this year; one against Northwestern in the first game of the year, and the other against Oregon.  They play good defense and run the ball well.  USC lost to Stanford 41-31 this year at home, and I know it's difficult to beat a team twice in one year, but I just think Stanford is better than USC and gets a win tonight in Santa Clara 27-20.

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ACC Championship

North Carolina
Clemson     -4.5

While the ACC Championship game has been somewhat of a joke lately, this is a dream match up for Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte.  You get the two biggest programs in North and South Carolina meeting in Charlotte, with the winner likely going to the College Football Playoff.   Despite the people in love with Ohio State, I think if Carolina wins they'll go to the playoff.  They'd have beaten the No. 1 team in the country and finished 11-1 with their only loss coming at a neutral site in the first game of the year.  I've gone back and forth on this game all week, including this morning.  I'd like to see UNC win and chaos ensue, but I think Clemson has too much talent and wins this one in a close game.  Clemson 34 UNC 31.

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B1G TEN Championship

Michigan State         -3.5
Iowa

Iowa finished the regular season 12-0 and Michigan State's only loss came to Nebraska, but they have quality wins over Michigan and Ohio State.  Clearly, the winner of this game is going to the College Football Playoff.  Kirk Ferentz was on the hot seat at the beginning of this year, and he then proceeds to go out and wins every game.  While, the B1G TEN West is not exactly the toughest division in college football, it's still impressive to go 12-0.  This game should be old school football with tough defense and a commitment to the run.  I like Iowa, but I think Michigan State has better talent and a better coach, so I'm going with Sparty to get the win 20-16.  


So, that has the College Football Playoff seeding likely looking like this:

ORANGE BOWL

1.  Clemson
4.  Oklahoma


COTTON BOWL

2.  Alabama
3.  Michigan State

SEC BOWL PROJECTIONS

                                                    Courtesy of thesportsjury.com

COTTON BOWL

Alabama

Michigan State

                                                        Courtesy of allstatesugarbowl.org

SUGAR BOWL

Ole Miss

Baylor

                                       Courtesy of Floridacitrussports.com

CITRUS BOWL

Florida

Michigan

                                                         Courtesy of trackemtigers.com

OUTBACK BOWL

Georgia

Northwestern

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TAXSLAYER BOWL

LSU

Penn State

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MUSIC CITY BOWL

Tennessee

Miami

                                                 Courtesy of wikipedia.org

TEXAS BOWL

Texas A&M
Texas Tech

                                                        Courtesy of louisville.com

BELK BOWL

Mississippi State

Virginia Tech

                                                      Courtesy of sports-odds.com

LIBERTY BOWL

Arkansas

Kansas State

                                                        Courtesy of wbrc.com

BIRMINGHAM BOWL

Auburn

Memphis

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Enjoy Championship Saturday, we'll be decorating for Christmas at my house with the games on in the background.  Cheers!

SEC Week 13 Predictions

                   Courtesy of seccountry.com

With the SEC regular season coming to a close, let's take a look at what we learned so far this season before we get to the games this week.

                                                      Courtesy of saturdayblitz.com

1.  Auburn was overhyped by everyone, your's truly included.  

The Auburn Tigers looked like everyone's trendy pick to make the College Football Playoff, but after a close win against Jacksonville State in Week 2, it became blatantly evident that Auburn wasn't going to make it to Atlanta, let alone to the CFP.  They could never get it going on offense and haven't been impressive even in their wins.  They'll make a bowl this year, but they're likely headed to Birmingham or Shreveport. 

                                                                         Courtesy of Foxsports.com

2.  Alabama is still Alabama.

Alabama is likely going to head back to Atlanta and the College Football Playoff, barring a complete collapse.  They have beaten every team they faced this year, outside of the Rebels, who played a flawless game against the Tide in Tuscaloosa.  The only thing between them and the playoffs are a mediocre Auburn team, and a Florida team that they should crush in the SEC Championship next week.

                                                             Courtesy of gifsoup.com

3.  The Les Miles Era at LSU will end on Saturday.

Regardless of your personal opinion of Les, it's undeniable that he's been a great coach at LSU.  His record is exemplary, but Saturday will likely be his last regular season game as the head coach in Baton Rouge.  It's a sad day for anyone who is a fan of SEC football.  The administration did not handle this well, despite it's inevitability, and Les was a media correspondent's dream interview, because you'd always get something unique.  The Tiger faithful better hope Jimbo Fisher or someone as good is locked in to be the next coach in Baton Rouge, or they could be in for a rough next couple of years.  Thanks for the memories Les.

                                                                          Courtesy of cbssports.com

4.  Dan Mullen is likely headed elsewhere after this year.  

For the record, I'm not a Dan Mullen fan, but objectively he's a great coach.  Not a good coach, a great coach! His ability to win games at a place where no one has really won before, outside of one great season by Jackie Sherrill, is remarkable.  He has never been able to get 5 star talent to Starkville, but he's done a great job at developing the players he did recruit to come to State.  He has rallied the Mississippi State fan base, largely by starting a public relation's war with Ole Miss since he stepped foot on campus.  They've embraced the little brother mantra, and it's been a brilliant strategy.  He's likely going to cash in on his high stock value and head to Virginia Tech or some other school at the end of the season, but MSU should be proud of the job he has done.  

                                                       Courtesy of trbimg.com

5.  Jim McElwain will easily win SEC Coach of the Year

Winning the SEC East wasn't that difficult considering the competition, but McElwain's ability to meander through the schedule and finish with 1 conference loss is impressive.  Clearly the Gators aren't the same team without Will Grier, but they are still going to go to Atlanta, likely finishing at 11-1 or 10-2 and no one predicted that at the beginning of the year.  It'll be interesting to see how the Gators handle Florida State, which have their own issues with Jimbo being in flux.

                                                        Courtesy of foxsports.com
6.  Tennessee and Arkansas look improved, but they aren't there yet.

For those of you who think Tennessee and Arkansas are back, they aren't.  They are improved, but Arkansas is one fluke play away from being 6-6 and Tennessee beat 1 SEC team with a winning record.  Yes, the Vols had a lot of close games and they'll tell you how they won their last 4-5 games, but their last 5 games were against Kentucky, South Carolina, North Texas, Missouri, and Vandy.  If they didn't go 5-0 in that stretch, they should be embarrassed.  They have one quality win this year and that was against Georgia.  Arkansas on the other hand was up and down all year.  They lost to Toledo and Texas Tech in the state of Arkansas, and beat LSU and Ole Miss on the road.  Both fan bases will be energized heading into next season, but they should be cautiously optimistic rather than betting the farm on these programs.  

                                                               Courtesy of djournal.com

7.  Ole Miss is going to wonder what could have been.  

Ole Miss is going to be haunted by the 4th and 25 Arkansas play for years.  The same way Ole Miss will wonder what would have happened had Eli not fallen down against LSU in 2003, the Rebel faithful will say had the 4th and 25 play not been converted, a win in the Egg Bowl would mean Ole Miss would be headed to Atlanta.  The Rebels didn't do themselves any favors losing to a Memphis team they clearly weren't prepared for, and dropping an early game to Florida with a pre-ineligible Will Grier, but the Arkansas game is what people will remember.  If you told the Rebels at the beginning of the season that they'd have wins over Alabama, Auburn, Texas A&M, and LSU, and they'd still have 3 losses they'd have said you were crazy.  They have a minute chance, should Auburn beat Alabama in the Iron Bowl, but the Rebels likely won't be headed to Atlanta.  

                                                       Courtesy of southernpigskin.com

8.  Mark Richt's seat is getting hot, but Georgia will probably stay the course.

It's mighty quiet in Athens.  Georgia will likely finish the season at 9-3, should they beat a bad Georgia Tech team, but that means they'll probably finish in 3rd place in the SEC East, due to their loss to Tennessee.  Is Mark Richt a bad coach?  No, of course not, but he's had some issues getting over the hump, and with the talent Georgia has that's tough to stomach.  I think Georgia gives him one more year if he beats Georgia Tech, but should the Dawgs lose in an upset, they'll likely agree to mutually part ways.  It's upsetting because Richt is a great person who tries to run a clean program, but the Georgia boosters are growing impatient in Athens.

                                                            Courtesy of universityherald.com


It's been a fun ride, Arkansas dominated Missouri yesterday to get to 7-5 and keep the Tigers out of a bowl; with one regular season week of SEC football left, let's take a look at the rest of Week 13's games.

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Georgia   -4
at Georgia Tech

Georgia Tech is 3-8 with a win over FSU.  Their other 2 wins are against Alcorn State and Tulane.  How does that happen?  Georgia on the other hand needed overtime to beat Georgia Southern...at home.  They are 8-3 this year, but they haven't beaten a quality opponent all season.  Obviously, an 8-3 team should beat a 3-8 team, but these two teams are a lot closer than their records.  I'll go with the Bulldogs to pull out a close win, but don't be surprised if Georgia Tech makes it a game and pulls out a win at home.  Georgia 23 Georgia Tech 20.    

                                                           Courtesy of kykernal.com

Louisville    -6
at Kentucky

While this rivalry is more interesting on the hard court, the football match up between Kentucky and Louisville is not without its own passion.  Kentucky needs to get this win to get bowl eligible, while Louisville sits at 6-5.  Louisville has played a lot of close games all year, both in wins and losses.  They started out the year 0-3 with losses to Auburn, Houston, and Clemson, and then went on to win 6 out of their next 7 games.  Kentucky hasn't looked good against any quality opponent all year.  Their 5 wins have come against ULL, South Carolina, Mizzou, Eastern Kentucky, and UNC-Charlotte.  All signs point to Louisville winning this game, and they are clearly the better team, but I'm reluctantly going with the upset based solely since Kentucky is playing at home, and they desperately want to get to a bowl.  Wildcats 24 Cardinals 20.   

                                                      Courtesy of foxcarolina.com

Clemson     -19
at South Carolina

How is this line only 19 points?  I know that's a lot of points in a rivalry game, but Clemson is on a mission and South Carolina is already on the phone with Kirby Smart's agent.  These two schools couldn't be more polar opposites right now.  This game is going to be a blowout.  Clemson 45 South Carolina 7.  

                                                        Courtesy of rolltidewareagle.com

Alabama     -14.5
at Auburn

You won't find a bigger fan of the Auburn Tigers on Saturday than me.  I know Cam Newton will be at this game, but outside of him suiting up for the Tigers and playing, they ain't beating Alabama.  The Crimson Tide is better in literally every phase of the game.  Alabama wins big 38 - 10.  Enjoy 3 hours of Verne and Gary mispronouncing everyone's names and praising Nick Saban, America.  

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Vanderbilt
at Tennessee   -18.5

I know Vandy got shut out by Texas A&M, which is an amazing accomplishment, because Texas A&M's defense is not exactly the '85 Bears, but I think they somehow bounce back in this game.  Don't get me wrong, I don't think they'll beat Tennessee, but I do think they do enough to not get completely embarrassed.  Tennessee barely beat Mizzou and South Carolina, so I think Vandy will at least put up a fight, being that this is their last game of the year.  Tennessee gets to 8-4 and the Vols Hype Train gets started up again.  Vols 27 Commodores 13.  

                                                     Courtesy of espn.go.com

Ole Miss    -1
at Mississippi State

Ole Miss has the better overall team.  Dak Prescott is a phenomenal player and he deserves a statue in Starkville, but Chad Kelly has put up comparable numbers this year, and likely will set the single season passing record for a program that has seen 2 Mannings walk through the door.  Ole Miss has a better defense and receiving corps, while State has their entire offense based around one amazing player, and when he's on, may the Good Lord help you.  This game's outcome is going to be based solely on the performance of Dak Prescott.  There's no team outside of LSU that's more dependent on one player, and Ole Miss hasn't fared well against good QBs.  If he plays lights out, State will win in a close game, but if he struggles, the Rebels will be victorious in Starkville.  Looking at the last 20 years, I don't think there's a bigger home field advantage in a rivalry game, than there is between Mississippi State and Ole Miss.  Until the visiting team wins this game, I'm going with the home team to get the victory.  This may be the last battle between two elite coaches in Mullen and Freeze, so enjoy the game on ESPN 2.  Again, I fully hope I'm wrong, but I've watched too many Egg Bowls to go with the visiting team.  Mississippi State 31 Ole Miss 28.  

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Florida
at Florida State   -2.5

I don't think anyone outside of a Florida booster would say this is a shocker, but Florida State should win this game.  There's been a lot of news out of Tallahassee this week, from Jimbo leaving for LSU, to the Jameis Winston investigation being mismanaged and possibly reopened.  That having been said, Florida barely beat the fighting Archimedes of Florida Atlantic last week.  Their QB issues are well known, and FSU is the better team.  Going to Tallahassee is going to be a rough adventure for the Gators.  They'll be rewarded for a great season by going to Atlanta next week, where they'll be trounced by Alabama.  FSU 27 Florida 17.

                                                    Courtesy of usathebiglead.com

Texas A&M
at LSU   -5.5

I spent Thanksgiving with my wife's family, who are all LSU fans.  They brought up a very good point; when LSU knows they are done, they are done.  After the Alabama game, the Tigers packed it in.  They aren't fighting for much at 9-3, but the one thing they'll rally around is Les for his final game on Saturday.  LSU has too much talent and with this being the last game for Les Miles, they'll pull through at home against the Aggies.  Texas A&M's defense still has trouble stopping teams not named Vanderbilt, and I think Leonard Fournette has a bounce back game to close out the year.  I'd be shocked if Les goes out with a loss.  Win this one for Les, LSU!  LSU 30 Texas A&M 17.

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It's been a fun season.  I'll do my SEC Championship: Alabama vs. Florida predictions next week.  Spoiler Alert:  Alabama in a blowout!  Cheers!

SEC Week 12 Predictions

                                                      Courtesy of Redcuprebellion.com

There is nothing like a dream to create the future.  That dream, the dream of a National Championship resting in Baton Rouge this year is all but over, and now the LSU Fighting Tigers look to salvage their season in Oxford.   But a new dream has emerged; that of a new coach to lead the Bayou Bengals back to glory as Les Mileserables throne begins to warm.  As the Mad Hatter holds his court he asks, "Is it true that I am to be released?"  The LSU faithful can only wonder, "God knows how I've lasted living with this bastard in the house!"  While releasing him might not be the wisest of decisions, fear naught LSU, for even the darkest night will end and the sun will rise.  

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This week in the SEC sees only a couple decent games, with the Bayou Bengals heading north to home of William Faulkner, and the Bulldogs of Starkvegas heading to Walmart U, where Arkansas suddenly looks like a tough out for anyone.  The season is almost coming to an end with only 2 weeks left of regular season games, so let's take a look at Week 12.

                                                          Courtesy of blogs.disney.com


FAU
at Florida   -30.5

The FAU Owls are 2-8, while the Gators sit at 9-1.  The outcome has already been decided, but what people are really interested in is whether or not Florida will cover, or will they sleepwalk through the game looking to FSU next week.  I think McElwain has got the Gators focused to get as many wins as possible as they hope to knock off Alabama in the SEC Championship to slide into the College Football Playoff.  They'll take care of business against the Fighting Archimedes and cover.  Florida 45 FAU 10.  

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The Citadel
at South Carolina

There's not really a line for this game.  So, let's just keep this one brief.  South Carolina wins.  It's a game no one outside the Palmetto State really cares about.  South Carolina goes to 4-8 before they get trounced by Clemson next week.   South Carolina 34 Citadel 17.

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LSU
at Ole Miss   -6.5

The CBS game of the week sees the Fighting Tigers head to Oxford to take on the Rebels in the Magnolia Bowl.  I've been to this game the last 2 years, the 2013 game being one of utter jubilation followed by confusion. 

                                                           Courtesy of SBNation.com

While, the 2014 game was one of awkward silence as I walked from Tiger Stadium to my car and drove back to New Orleans as fast as possible....thanks Bo Wallace. 

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But, this year I'll be watching from my home with my wife, an LSU fan.  That should be interesting.  Both the Rebels and Tigers are coming off losses to an Arkansas team they were favored against, and have seen their seasons crushed like one of Rust Cohle's beer cans.

  

Courtesy of the lifesentence.net

If LSU is going to win this game, it's going to win it on the arms and legs of Brandon Harris.  They've become one dimensional and when they've been unable to run the ball as they have the last 2 weeks, they're incapable of scoring. Ole Miss will do the same thing Alabama and Arkansas did and stack the box against Forunette, and while he'll have a better game than he did against Alabama and Arkansas, I'm not sure that he runs for 200 yards against the Ole Miss front line.  But based on the luck Ole Miss has had this year, I'm going with the Tigers to get a last second win in Oxford.  

                                                                 Courtesy of giphy.com

I think the game comes down to the last drive the way it has the last couple of years.  Les Miles losing 3 games in a row doesn't sound like a strong possibility.  I hope I'm wrong and Ole Miss wins in a blowout, but after that crazy loss to Arkansas I think this team feels a lot like they did after the loss to Auburn last year, which isn't good.  Even with 2 weeks to prepare, they'd need to win out and Bama to lose the Iron Bowl to go to Atlanta and unless Cam Newton's under center for Auburn, that ain't happening.  LSU 34 Ole Miss 31. 

   

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Charleston Southern
at Alabama    -38.5

Nick Saban was not happy when reporters asked him how much playing time some of his younger players were going to get in this game.  The Tide should win this game and cover 52-7.  But, the big story this week revolved around rumors that if Charlies Strong heads to Miami, would Texas make another run at Saban, and even if they don't, does Saban look to head to Indy to join Andrew Luck and the Colts with full autonomy in a Belichick like role.  The Tide faithful sure are hoping they're just rumors, because they're starting to get nervous that their beloved coach may leave Tuscaloosa.   

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                                                          Courtesy of campuspressbox.com

Idaho
at Auburn   -34

The Vandals head to The Plains this weekend to take on a resurgent Auburn team that will get bowl eligible this week.   It's pretty evident the Tigers will get to 6-5 this week before the Iron Bowl, but I'm not sure they cover against Paul Petrino's Vandals.  The Vandals have been giving up a ton of points lately, but I think they'll be able to score enough to cover the spread.  Auburn pulls away in the 2nd half, and wins 42-17.  

                                                                    Courtesy of zimbio.com

Mississippi State
at Arkansas   -5

Arkansas has been baffling this year.  They've lost games to Toledo and Texas Tech, and then they've beaten Ole Miss and LSU.  Mississippi State on the other hand has been pretty consistent; they've beaten the teams they're supposed to and lost to teams most analysts expected.  Fayetteville is a tough place to go to and get a win, and right now Brandon Allen might be having the best QB play of anyone in the conference.  State will put up a much better fight than they did last week, but I think Arkansas still gets a win at home and covers, 35-28.    

                                                                 Courtesy of sicemdawgs.com

Georgia Southern
at Georgia   -13

Georgia Southern is a good football team.  While the Bulldogs likely aren't in too much danger of losing this game, the 13 point line shows that Vegas respects the Eagles.  Georgia Southern runs the triple option, which means the Bulldogs will see the this offense for 2 straight weeks, as they face Georgia Tech next week, and that offense is tough to defend.  This game is close for a while, but Georgia scores a late touchdown to barely cover the spread.  Georgia 35 Georgia Southern 21.   

                                                           Courtesy of fansided.com

Tennessee     -6
at Missouri    

Mizzou won last week based largely off emotion.  They won't be as lucky this week when the Vols come to town.  While Mizzou could get bowl eligible on Saturday night, they'll likely have to wait another week.  Tennessee didn't exactly dominate North Texas 2 weeks ago, or South Carolina the week before, but they still got wins, and they've had 2 weeks to prepare for Missouri.  Josh Dobbs will have his work cutout for him, but I think the Vols are just the better team.  They get a win in a hostile environment on a cold November night, and Mizzou will head to Arkansas next week needing a win to get to a bowl.  Vols 28 Tigers 20.

                                                     Courtesy of hostmama.com

UNC Charlotte
at Kentucky    -24.5

Kentucky will get 1 game closer to bowl eligibility this week against Charlotte.  The 49ers have only 2 wins this season, and have lost 8 in row, while Kentucky has dropped their last 5 games. Mark Stoops's Wildcats will win, but I'm not a believer in them covering a spread of 24.5 points against anyone, even a bad UNC Charlotte team.  A big factor could be the weather, with a 70% chance of rain/snow and temperatures that could dip down around freezing, so I think that could keep the score lower than it normally might be.   Wildcats 27 49ers 13.   

                                                              Courtesy of dallasnews.com

Texas A&M    -6
at Vanderbilt   

Derek Mason has done a better job than most people expected at Vandy this year.  I thought they'd struggle to get 2 wins, but the Commodores are sitting at 4-6 with an outside chance to make a bowl.  I don't think that'll happen, but I also don't think Texas A&M blows them out in Nashville.  Texas A&M gave all 3 of their QBs starting reps this week, which proves they don't have a QB.  If you're opening up the QB competition in Week 12, when all 3 are healthy, you've got some serious problems.  Despite their issues under center, I think the Aggies are still the more talented team and will get a win in Nashville as they edge out Vandy, but just barely.  Aggies 24 Commodores 21.    

                                                                 Courtesy of nola.com

Cheers to the Weekend.  Hotty Toddy Y'all!  

                                                               Courtesy of usathebiglead.com