Courtesy of seccountry.com
With the SEC regular season coming to a close, let's take a look at what we learned so far this season before we get to the games this week.
1. Auburn was overhyped by everyone, your's truly included.
The Auburn Tigers looked like everyone's trendy pick to make the College Football Playoff, but after a close win against Jacksonville State in Week 2, it became blatantly evident that Auburn wasn't going to make it to Atlanta, let alone to the CFP. They could never get it going on offense and haven't been impressive even in their wins. They'll make a bowl this year, but they're likely headed to Birmingham or Shreveport.
2. Alabama is still Alabama.
Alabama is likely going to head back to Atlanta and the College Football Playoff, barring a complete collapse. They have beaten every team they faced this year, outside of the Rebels, who played a flawless game against the Tide in Tuscaloosa. The only thing between them and the playoffs are a mediocre Auburn team, and a Florida team that they should crush in the SEC Championship next week.
3. The Les Miles Era at LSU will end on Saturday.
Regardless of your personal opinion of Les, it's undeniable that he's been a great coach at LSU. His record is exemplary, but Saturday will likely be his last regular season game as the head coach in Baton Rouge. It's a sad day for anyone who is a fan of SEC football. The administration did not handle this well, despite it's inevitability, and Les was a media correspondent's dream interview, because you'd always get something unique. The Tiger faithful better hope Jimbo Fisher or someone as good is locked in to be the next coach in Baton Rouge, or they could be in for a rough next couple of years. Thanks for the memories Les.
4. Dan Mullen is likely headed elsewhere after this year.
For the record, I'm not a Dan Mullen fan, but objectively he's a great coach. Not a good coach, a great coach! His ability to win games at a place where no one has really won before, outside of one great season by Jackie Sherrill, is remarkable. He has never been able to get 5 star talent to Starkville, but he's done a great job at developing the players he did recruit to come to State. He has rallied the Mississippi State fan base, largely by starting a public relation's war with Ole Miss since he stepped foot on campus. They've embraced the little brother mantra, and it's been a brilliant strategy. He's likely going to cash in on his high stock value and head to Virginia Tech or some other school at the end of the season, but MSU should be proud of the job he has done.
5. Jim McElwain will easily win SEC Coach of the Year
Winning the SEC East wasn't that difficult considering the competition, but McElwain's ability to meander through the schedule and finish with 1 conference loss is impressive. Clearly the Gators aren't the same team without Will Grier, but they are still going to go to Atlanta, likely finishing at 11-1 or 10-2 and no one predicted that at the beginning of the year. It'll be interesting to see how the Gators handle Florida State, which have their own issues with Jimbo being in flux.
6. Tennessee and Arkansas look improved, but they aren't there yet.
For those of you who think Tennessee and Arkansas are back, they aren't. They are improved, but Arkansas is one fluke play away from being 6-6 and Tennessee beat 1 SEC team with a winning record. Yes, the Vols had a lot of close games and they'll tell you how they won their last 4-5 games, but their last 5 games were against Kentucky, South Carolina, North Texas, Missouri, and Vandy. If they didn't go 5-0 in that stretch, they should be embarrassed. They have one quality win this year and that was against Georgia. Arkansas on the other hand was up and down all year. They lost to Toledo and Texas Tech in the state of Arkansas, and beat LSU and Ole Miss on the road. Both fan bases will be energized heading into next season, but they should be cautiously optimistic rather than betting the farm on these programs.
7. Ole Miss is going to wonder what could have been.
Ole Miss is going to be haunted by the 4th and 25 Arkansas play for years. The same way Ole Miss will wonder what would have happened had Eli not fallen down against LSU in 2003, the Rebel faithful will say had the 4th and 25 play not been converted, a win in the Egg Bowl would mean Ole Miss would be headed to Atlanta. The Rebels didn't do themselves any favors losing to a Memphis team they clearly weren't prepared for, and dropping an early game to Florida with a pre-ineligible Will Grier, but the Arkansas game is what people will remember. If you told the Rebels at the beginning of the season that they'd have wins over Alabama, Auburn, Texas A&M, and LSU, and they'd still have 3 losses they'd have said you were crazy. They have a minute chance, should Auburn beat Alabama in the Iron Bowl, but the Rebels likely won't be headed to Atlanta.
8. Mark Richt's seat is getting hot, but Georgia will probably stay the course.
It's mighty quiet in Athens. Georgia will likely finish the season at 9-3, should they beat a bad Georgia Tech team, but that means they'll probably finish in 3rd place in the SEC East, due to their loss to Tennessee. Is Mark Richt a bad coach? No, of course not, but he's had some issues getting over the hump, and with the talent Georgia has that's tough to stomach. I think Georgia gives him one more year if he beats Georgia Tech, but should the Dawgs lose in an upset, they'll likely agree to mutually part ways. It's upsetting because Richt is a great person who tries to run a clean program, but the Georgia boosters are growing impatient in Athens.
It's been a fun ride, Arkansas dominated Missouri yesterday to get to 7-5 and keep the Tigers out of a bowl; with one regular season week of SEC football left, let's take a look at the rest of Week 13's games.
Georgia -4
at Georgia Tech
Georgia Tech is 3-8 with a win over FSU. Their other 2 wins are against Alcorn State and Tulane. How does that happen? Georgia on the other hand needed overtime to beat Georgia Southern...at home. They are 8-3 this year, but they haven't beaten a quality opponent all season. Obviously, an 8-3 team should beat a 3-8 team, but these two teams are a lot closer than their records. I'll go with the Bulldogs to pull out a close win, but don't be surprised if Georgia Tech makes it a game and pulls out a win at home. Georgia 23 Georgia Tech 20.
Louisville -6
at Kentucky
While this rivalry is more interesting on the hard court, the football match up between Kentucky and Louisville is not without its own passion. Kentucky needs to get this win to get bowl eligible, while Louisville sits at 6-5. Louisville has played a lot of close games all year, both in wins and losses. They started out the year 0-3 with losses to Auburn, Houston, and Clemson, and then went on to win 6 out of their next 7 games. Kentucky hasn't looked good against any quality opponent all year. Their 5 wins have come against ULL, South Carolina, Mizzou, Eastern Kentucky, and UNC-Charlotte. All signs point to Louisville winning this game, and they are clearly the better team, but I'm reluctantly going with the upset based solely since Kentucky is playing at home, and they desperately want to get to a bowl. Wildcats 24 Cardinals 20.
Clemson -19
at South Carolina
How is this line only 19 points? I know that's a lot of points in a rivalry game, but Clemson is on a mission and South Carolina is already on the phone with Kirby Smart's agent. These two schools couldn't be more polar opposites right now. This game is going to be a blowout. Clemson 45 South Carolina 7.
Alabama -14.5
at Auburn
You won't find a bigger fan of the Auburn Tigers on Saturday than me. I know Cam Newton will be at this game, but outside of him suiting up for the Tigers and playing, they ain't beating Alabama. The Crimson Tide is better in literally every phase of the game. Alabama wins big 38 - 10. Enjoy 3 hours of Verne and Gary mispronouncing everyone's names and praising Nick Saban, America.
Vanderbilt
at Tennessee -18.5
I know Vandy got shut out by Texas A&M, which is an amazing accomplishment, because Texas A&M's defense is not exactly the '85 Bears, but I think they somehow bounce back in this game. Don't get me wrong, I don't think they'll beat Tennessee, but I do think they do enough to not get completely embarrassed. Tennessee barely beat Mizzou and South Carolina, so I think Vandy will at least put up a fight, being that this is their last game of the year. Tennessee gets to 8-4 and the Vols Hype Train gets started up again. Vols 27 Commodores 13.
Ole Miss -1
at Mississippi State
Ole Miss has the better overall team. Dak Prescott is a phenomenal player and he deserves a statue in Starkville, but Chad Kelly has put up comparable numbers this year, and likely will set the single season passing record for a program that has seen 2 Mannings walk through the door. Ole Miss has a better defense and receiving corps, while State has their entire offense based around one amazing player, and when he's on, may the Good Lord help you. This game's outcome is going to be based solely on the performance of Dak Prescott. There's no team outside of LSU that's more dependent on one player, and Ole Miss hasn't fared well against good QBs. If he plays lights out, State will win in a close game, but if he struggles, the Rebels will be victorious in Starkville. Looking at the last 20 years, I don't think there's a bigger home field advantage in a rivalry game, than there is between Mississippi State and Ole Miss. Until the visiting team wins this game, I'm going with the home team to get the victory. This may be the last battle between two elite coaches in Mullen and Freeze, so enjoy the game on ESPN 2. Again, I fully hope I'm wrong, but I've watched too many Egg Bowls to go with the visiting team. Mississippi State 31 Ole Miss 28.
Florida
at Florida State -2.5
I don't think anyone outside of a Florida booster would say this is a shocker, but Florida State should win this game. There's been a lot of news out of Tallahassee this week, from Jimbo leaving for LSU, to the Jameis Winston investigation being mismanaged and possibly reopened. That having been said, Florida barely beat the fighting Archimedes of Florida Atlantic last week. Their QB issues are well known, and FSU is the better team. Going to Tallahassee is going to be a rough adventure for the Gators. They'll be rewarded for a great season by going to Atlanta next week, where they'll be trounced by Alabama. FSU 27 Florida 17.
Texas A&M
at LSU -5.5
I spent Thanksgiving with my wife's family, who are all LSU fans. They brought up a very good point; when LSU knows they are done, they are done. After the Alabama game, the Tigers packed it in. They aren't fighting for much at 9-3, but the one thing they'll rally around is Les for his final game on Saturday. LSU has too much talent and with this being the last game for Les Miles, they'll pull through at home against the Aggies. Texas A&M's defense still has trouble stopping teams not named Vanderbilt, and I think Leonard Fournette has a bounce back game to close out the year. I'd be shocked if Les goes out with a loss. Win this one for Les, LSU! LSU 30 Texas A&M 17.
It's been a fun season. I'll do my SEC Championship: Alabama vs. Florida predictions next week. Spoiler Alert: Alabama in a blowout! Cheers!
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