2016 SEC Football Predictions

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With the impending doom that awaits us all in November, let's take a moment to revel in the fact that we'll at least have barbaric athletic competition for the next few months to distract us from the embarrassment that is sure to follow during the debates and general election.  

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Cheers to SEC Football returning, and Making Saturdays Great Again.  I, for one, am looking forward to planning my entire weekend around teams I'm overly emotionally invested in, while I'm sure ladies everywhere are looking forward to BYE Weeks, or as they call it, Terrific Lady Day.

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So, without further adieu let's get to some SEC Football Predictions for 2016! 

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SEC EAST

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1.  TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS  10-2

Alright Vols, here's your chance.  Georgia is breaking in a new coach, Florida has major issues with scoring, and the other 4 teams in the East are going to struggle to make a bowl game.  If you don't win the East this year, I don't know when it will happen.  Tennessee should start out 3-0 before Florida comes to Knoxville, but that's where things get tough for the Vols as they get the Gators, Georgia, Texas A&M, and Bama all in a row.   That's a tough stretch, but the beginning of the season and the end of it set up nicely for Tennessee to get back to Atlanta.

                                             Courtesy of georgiadogs.com

2.  GEORGIA BULLDOGS  9-3

Georgia should be just fine, but I think they are going to struggle at QB this year.  Jacob Eason should be the starter by the time the Bulldogs head to Oxford, but he's still a true freshman; he's going to make mistakes, and Georgia didn't put up huge numbers on offense last year.  If Nick Chubb stays healthy they have a chance at heading to Atlanta, but I think they're a year or two away.  The opening game against the Tar Heels in Atlanta should be a good litmus test for Georgia to gauge how the rest of the season will fair.

                                            Courtesy of usatthebiglead.com

3.  FLORIDA GATORS   8-4

The big question for the Florida Gators this year, is can they beat Tennessee again, and spoil Vol Nation's chance at a trip to Atlanta?  Florida completely fell apart down the stretch last year, but they still have a lot of talent on that team.  Like the Vols, they should start out 3-0, but true road games against Tennessee, Arkansas, and Florida State, along with the cocktail party in Jacksonville are going to pose a real problem for Florida's chances to represent the East in the SEC Championship game.  

                                               Courtesy of saturdaydownsouth.com

4.  KENTUCKY WILDCATS  7-5

I struggled with this one, but I think Kentucky secures a bowl victory before November arrives, and then they coast into a middle tier bowl at 7-5.  Southern Miss isn't an easy opponent to start the year, but home games against the Golden Eagles, Gamecocks, Vandy, and Mississippi State set up nicely for the Wildcats to get to a bowl and for Mark Stoops to get another year in Lexington.  

                                                   Courtesy of cbssports.com

5.  VANDERBILT COMMODORES  5-7

Here's where things get difficult.  The bottom of the SEC East is going to be bad.  I think Vandy has the best defense out of the 3 remaining SEC East teams, and along with the fact that Vandy isn't breaking in a new coach, I have them beating both South Carolina and Mizzou, but I'm not super confident about either of those picks.  If the Dores get to 5 wins, I think Derek Mason gets another year in Nashville.  

                                              Courtesy of page2sports.com

6.  SOUTH CAROLINA GAMECOCKS  4-8

The Gamecocks have to start the year on the road in Nashville, and then turn around and go to Starkville in Week 2.  Both of those games are going to be challenges for Will Muschamp, and when the Pirates come to town in Week 3, South Carolina isn't going to get a break.  I don't think the Gamecock faithful expect Muschamp to be Steve Spurrier overnight, but they better be patient, because they are likely in for a multi-year rebuilding cycle.  

                                                    Courtesy of foxsports.com

7.  MISSOURI TIGERS  3-9

It's really hard to believe that 2 years ago this team won the SEC East.  Having to go to Morgantown in Week 1 isn't a great way for Mizzou to start the year, especially after they just cut their RB Trevon Walters for stealing.  Maybe I'm wrong and the Tigers will be a lot better under Barry Odom, but I think Mizzou is going to struggle mightily this year.  

SEC WEST

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1.  ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE   11-1

"And they rose up early on the morrow, and offered burnt offerings, and brought peace offerings; and the people sat down to eat and to drink, and rose up to play." - Exodus 32:6  4 National Titles in the last 7 years, while having serious questions at QB, demonstrates that the Crimson Tide know how to win big.  With true road games against Ole Miss, Arkansas, Tennessee, and LSU, it's not an easy road for Alabama, but they're going to be favored in all 4 of those games, and I don't see any team knocking the Tide off their perch.  

                                            Courtesy of usatthebiglead.com

2.  OLE MISS REBELS   10-2

This young lady pretty much sums up what Draft Night looked like at my house this Spring.  Ole Miss has a brutal schedule to start the year with games against FSU, Bama, and Georgia all before the month of October.  Still, they return the best QB in the SEC and have a team loaded with star WRs.  The biggest question for Ole Miss remains their offensive line which lost two players to the NFL, and they're going to be tested early and often against the Seminoles, Tide, and Bulldogs.  The 2016 Rebels may be better than last year's Sugar Bowl team, but if they don't start out at least 2-2, it could be a long year in Oxford based on that schedule.  

                                               Courtesy of sbnation.com

3.  LSU TIGERS  9-3

LSU is loaded with talent this year, but they have Brandon Harris at QB.  I don't know why people are thinking LSU is going to win the National Championship, because the blueprint on how to beat them has pretty much been written in stone.  Stuff the box and make Brandon Harris throw the ball to beat you.  If you let Leonard Fournette run on you, it's going to be nearly impossible to beat the Tigers, but if you do what Alabama and Arkansas did last year and take away their running game, then LSU becomes one dimensional, and that dimension ain't good. 

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4.  TEXAS A&M AGGIES  8-4

The Aggies have probably just about as many questions as any team in college football.  They have Trevor Knight, who may be the 2nd or 3rd best QB in the league and some good offensive weapons, but with kids dropping Texas A&M from consideration nearly everyday, and rumors swirling around College Station, that this is a do or die year for Sumlin, things could get nasty real fast.  If A&M starts out 1-3 in the first month of the season, which they could certainly do with games against UCLA, Auburn, and Arkansas, Sumlin may not make it to November.  However, if he starts out 3-1 or 4-0, and wins the games he's supposed to, he should get another year to turn things around.  

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5.  AUBURN TIGERS  7-5

Another team in complete turmoil is the Auburn Tigers.  Right off the bat, Auburn gets a team that was a hair away from winning a National Title with arguably the best player in America, as the Clemson Tigers journey to the Plains.  Auburn is not winning this game, and I don't even think it's close.  If they prove me wrong, God Bless them, but I think this thing gets ugly fast.  Auburn does get home games against LSU, Texas A&M, and Arkansas which are big swing games for them, but they have to go to Ole Miss, Georgia, and Alabama.  Assuming they win the games they are supposed to and lose the games they aren't, 7-5 is about where they should finish.    

                                                Courtesy of goodbullhunting.com

6.  ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS  7-5

Arkansas finished 8-5 last year with wins over Tennessee, Auburn (OT) Ole Miss (OT), LSU, and Kansas State and losses against teams like Toledo and Texas Tech proving who knows what this team is capable of.  Arkansas still has a massive offensive line, but they are replacing a lot with their QB, TE, and both RBs off to the NFL, so there's going to be at least some drop off.   I think they make a bowl, but they aren't a contender to win the SEC West.  

                                                     Courtesy of usatthebiglead.com

7.  MISSISSIPPI STATE BULLDOGS   5-7

With the best player in school history off to Dallas, there's going to be some growing pains with his replacement, but Dan Mullen has done a very good job at getting the most out of his players.  I think the Bulldogs start out 2-0 when they head to Baton Rouge, but it's going to take some quirky things to happen for them to beat the LSU Tigers.  If the Bulldogs can win a conference road game or two, they may continue the bowl streak under Dan Mullen, but a season that ends with Texas A&M, Bama, Arkansas, and Ole Miss doesn't bode well for the Bulldogs.

SEC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

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TENNESSEE vs. ALABAMA

In a rematch that sees the winner likely going to the College Football Playoff, I think the Vols jump out to a lead, but Bama's defense forces Josh Dobbs to make mistakes and their talent propels them back into the Playoffs, as they win their 5th SEC Championship under Nick Saban.  Bama 31 Tennessee 20.  

SEC Week 13 Predictions

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With the SEC regular season coming to a close, let's take a look at what we learned so far this season before we get to the games this week.

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1.  Auburn was overhyped by everyone, your's truly included.  

The Auburn Tigers looked like everyone's trendy pick to make the College Football Playoff, but after a close win against Jacksonville State in Week 2, it became blatantly evident that Auburn wasn't going to make it to Atlanta, let alone to the CFP.  They could never get it going on offense and haven't been impressive even in their wins.  They'll make a bowl this year, but they're likely headed to Birmingham or Shreveport. 

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2.  Alabama is still Alabama.

Alabama is likely going to head back to Atlanta and the College Football Playoff, barring a complete collapse.  They have beaten every team they faced this year, outside of the Rebels, who played a flawless game against the Tide in Tuscaloosa.  The only thing between them and the playoffs are a mediocre Auburn team, and a Florida team that they should crush in the SEC Championship next week.

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3.  The Les Miles Era at LSU will end on Saturday.

Regardless of your personal opinion of Les, it's undeniable that he's been a great coach at LSU.  His record is exemplary, but Saturday will likely be his last regular season game as the head coach in Baton Rouge.  It's a sad day for anyone who is a fan of SEC football.  The administration did not handle this well, despite it's inevitability, and Les was a media correspondent's dream interview, because you'd always get something unique.  The Tiger faithful better hope Jimbo Fisher or someone as good is locked in to be the next coach in Baton Rouge, or they could be in for a rough next couple of years.  Thanks for the memories Les.

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4.  Dan Mullen is likely headed elsewhere after this year.  

For the record, I'm not a Dan Mullen fan, but objectively he's a great coach.  Not a good coach, a great coach! His ability to win games at a place where no one has really won before, outside of one great season by Jackie Sherrill, is remarkable.  He has never been able to get 5 star talent to Starkville, but he's done a great job at developing the players he did recruit to come to State.  He has rallied the Mississippi State fan base, largely by starting a public relation's war with Ole Miss since he stepped foot on campus.  They've embraced the little brother mantra, and it's been a brilliant strategy.  He's likely going to cash in on his high stock value and head to Virginia Tech or some other school at the end of the season, but MSU should be proud of the job he has done.  

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5.  Jim McElwain will easily win SEC Coach of the Year

Winning the SEC East wasn't that difficult considering the competition, but McElwain's ability to meander through the schedule and finish with 1 conference loss is impressive.  Clearly the Gators aren't the same team without Will Grier, but they are still going to go to Atlanta, likely finishing at 11-1 or 10-2 and no one predicted that at the beginning of the year.  It'll be interesting to see how the Gators handle Florida State, which have their own issues with Jimbo being in flux.

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6.  Tennessee and Arkansas look improved, but they aren't there yet.

For those of you who think Tennessee and Arkansas are back, they aren't.  They are improved, but Arkansas is one fluke play away from being 6-6 and Tennessee beat 1 SEC team with a winning record.  Yes, the Vols had a lot of close games and they'll tell you how they won their last 4-5 games, but their last 5 games were against Kentucky, South Carolina, North Texas, Missouri, and Vandy.  If they didn't go 5-0 in that stretch, they should be embarrassed.  They have one quality win this year and that was against Georgia.  Arkansas on the other hand was up and down all year.  They lost to Toledo and Texas Tech in the state of Arkansas, and beat LSU and Ole Miss on the road.  Both fan bases will be energized heading into next season, but they should be cautiously optimistic rather than betting the farm on these programs.  

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7.  Ole Miss is going to wonder what could have been.  

Ole Miss is going to be haunted by the 4th and 25 Arkansas play for years.  The same way Ole Miss will wonder what would have happened had Eli not fallen down against LSU in 2003, the Rebel faithful will say had the 4th and 25 play not been converted, a win in the Egg Bowl would mean Ole Miss would be headed to Atlanta.  The Rebels didn't do themselves any favors losing to a Memphis team they clearly weren't prepared for, and dropping an early game to Florida with a pre-ineligible Will Grier, but the Arkansas game is what people will remember.  If you told the Rebels at the beginning of the season that they'd have wins over Alabama, Auburn, Texas A&M, and LSU, and they'd still have 3 losses they'd have said you were crazy.  They have a minute chance, should Auburn beat Alabama in the Iron Bowl, but the Rebels likely won't be headed to Atlanta.  

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8.  Mark Richt's seat is getting hot, but Georgia will probably stay the course.

It's mighty quiet in Athens.  Georgia will likely finish the season at 9-3, should they beat a bad Georgia Tech team, but that means they'll probably finish in 3rd place in the SEC East, due to their loss to Tennessee.  Is Mark Richt a bad coach?  No, of course not, but he's had some issues getting over the hump, and with the talent Georgia has that's tough to stomach.  I think Georgia gives him one more year if he beats Georgia Tech, but should the Dawgs lose in an upset, they'll likely agree to mutually part ways.  It's upsetting because Richt is a great person who tries to run a clean program, but the Georgia boosters are growing impatient in Athens.

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It's been a fun ride, Arkansas dominated Missouri yesterday to get to 7-5 and keep the Tigers out of a bowl; with one regular season week of SEC football left, let's take a look at the rest of Week 13's games.

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Georgia   -4
at Georgia Tech

Georgia Tech is 3-8 with a win over FSU.  Their other 2 wins are against Alcorn State and Tulane.  How does that happen?  Georgia on the other hand needed overtime to beat Georgia Southern...at home.  They are 8-3 this year, but they haven't beaten a quality opponent all season.  Obviously, an 8-3 team should beat a 3-8 team, but these two teams are a lot closer than their records.  I'll go with the Bulldogs to pull out a close win, but don't be surprised if Georgia Tech makes it a game and pulls out a win at home.  Georgia 23 Georgia Tech 20.    

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Louisville    -6
at Kentucky

While this rivalry is more interesting on the hard court, the football match up between Kentucky and Louisville is not without its own passion.  Kentucky needs to get this win to get bowl eligible, while Louisville sits at 6-5.  Louisville has played a lot of close games all year, both in wins and losses.  They started out the year 0-3 with losses to Auburn, Houston, and Clemson, and then went on to win 6 out of their next 7 games.  Kentucky hasn't looked good against any quality opponent all year.  Their 5 wins have come against ULL, South Carolina, Mizzou, Eastern Kentucky, and UNC-Charlotte.  All signs point to Louisville winning this game, and they are clearly the better team, but I'm reluctantly going with the upset based solely since Kentucky is playing at home, and they desperately want to get to a bowl.  Wildcats 24 Cardinals 20.   

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Clemson     -19
at South Carolina

How is this line only 19 points?  I know that's a lot of points in a rivalry game, but Clemson is on a mission and South Carolina is already on the phone with Kirby Smart's agent.  These two schools couldn't be more polar opposites right now.  This game is going to be a blowout.  Clemson 45 South Carolina 7.  

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Alabama     -14.5
at Auburn

You won't find a bigger fan of the Auburn Tigers on Saturday than me.  I know Cam Newton will be at this game, but outside of him suiting up for the Tigers and playing, they ain't beating Alabama.  The Crimson Tide is better in literally every phase of the game.  Alabama wins big 38 - 10.  Enjoy 3 hours of Verne and Gary mispronouncing everyone's names and praising Nick Saban, America.  

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Vanderbilt
at Tennessee   -18.5

I know Vandy got shut out by Texas A&M, which is an amazing accomplishment, because Texas A&M's defense is not exactly the '85 Bears, but I think they somehow bounce back in this game.  Don't get me wrong, I don't think they'll beat Tennessee, but I do think they do enough to not get completely embarrassed.  Tennessee barely beat Mizzou and South Carolina, so I think Vandy will at least put up a fight, being that this is their last game of the year.  Tennessee gets to 8-4 and the Vols Hype Train gets started up again.  Vols 27 Commodores 13.  

                                                     Courtesy of espn.go.com

Ole Miss    -1
at Mississippi State

Ole Miss has the better overall team.  Dak Prescott is a phenomenal player and he deserves a statue in Starkville, but Chad Kelly has put up comparable numbers this year, and likely will set the single season passing record for a program that has seen 2 Mannings walk through the door.  Ole Miss has a better defense and receiving corps, while State has their entire offense based around one amazing player, and when he's on, may the Good Lord help you.  This game's outcome is going to be based solely on the performance of Dak Prescott.  There's no team outside of LSU that's more dependent on one player, and Ole Miss hasn't fared well against good QBs.  If he plays lights out, State will win in a close game, but if he struggles, the Rebels will be victorious in Starkville.  Looking at the last 20 years, I don't think there's a bigger home field advantage in a rivalry game, than there is between Mississippi State and Ole Miss.  Until the visiting team wins this game, I'm going with the home team to get the victory.  This may be the last battle between two elite coaches in Mullen and Freeze, so enjoy the game on ESPN 2.  Again, I fully hope I'm wrong, but I've watched too many Egg Bowls to go with the visiting team.  Mississippi State 31 Ole Miss 28.  

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Florida
at Florida State   -2.5

I don't think anyone outside of a Florida booster would say this is a shocker, but Florida State should win this game.  There's been a lot of news out of Tallahassee this week, from Jimbo leaving for LSU, to the Jameis Winston investigation being mismanaged and possibly reopened.  That having been said, Florida barely beat the fighting Archimedes of Florida Atlantic last week.  Their QB issues are well known, and FSU is the better team.  Going to Tallahassee is going to be a rough adventure for the Gators.  They'll be rewarded for a great season by going to Atlanta next week, where they'll be trounced by Alabama.  FSU 27 Florida 17.

                                                    Courtesy of usathebiglead.com

Texas A&M
at LSU   -5.5

I spent Thanksgiving with my wife's family, who are all LSU fans.  They brought up a very good point; when LSU knows they are done, they are done.  After the Alabama game, the Tigers packed it in.  They aren't fighting for much at 9-3, but the one thing they'll rally around is Les for his final game on Saturday.  LSU has too much talent and with this being the last game for Les Miles, they'll pull through at home against the Aggies.  Texas A&M's defense still has trouble stopping teams not named Vanderbilt, and I think Leonard Fournette has a bounce back game to close out the year.  I'd be shocked if Les goes out with a loss.  Win this one for Les, LSU!  LSU 30 Texas A&M 17.

                                                               Courtesy of fansided.com

It's been a fun season.  I'll do my SEC Championship: Alabama vs. Florida predictions next week.  Spoiler Alert:  Alabama in a blowout!  Cheers!