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Championship Sunday has finally arrived, and in true Vegas fashion, it'll be two No. 1 seeds vs. two No. 2 seeds, as the road to the Super Bowl gets decided today in Denver and Charlotte.
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Last week, New England took care of business against Kansas City, as they never trailed the entire day. Gronk looked unstoppable, with a pair of TDs and the game didn't look like it was ever in doubt. Kansas City's clock management issues didn't help matters, and even with a late score by the Chiefs, the Patriots won 27-20.
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In Denver, the Broncos beat a hobbled Steelers team 23-16. Trailing 13-12 heading to the 4th quarter, Denver reached the end zone with 3 minutes remaining to take a 20-13 lead, then tacked on a field goal for insurance. Pittsburgh managed a late field goal with 19 seconds remaining, but couldn't get the ball back to tie the game. Big Ben did all he could, but it wasn't enough, and the Broncos win set up Brady - Manning XVII.
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On the NFC side, Arizona jumped out to a sizable lead against Green Bay only to see Aaron Rodgers complete 4th down after 4th down and a last second Hail Mary to send the game into overtime. Arizona would win the coin toss, after the coin initially did not flip, and march down the field winning the game on a shovel pass to Larry Fitzgerald, in a game that shouldn't have been that close, but certainly made for pure sports entertainment.
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In Charlotte, Carolina demolished Seattle in the 1st half, based on a pair of Russell Wilson interceptions, one of which was returned by Luke Keuchly for a touchdown to jump out to a 31-0 lead that no one saw coming. The Panthers then played prevent defense and an overly conservative on offense in the 2nd half to hang on for a 31-24 win.
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So, that brings us to today's games, and you really couldn't ask for better story lines. In the early game, two 1st ballot Hall of Famers square off for the 17th time overall, and their 5th AFC Championship game against each other, with both Manning and Brady having won twice. Will Peyton Manning make it to the Super Bowl one final time, by beating his archrival, or will Tom Brady and Bill Belichick end Manning's career in poetic fashion and head back to the Super Bowl for a 7th time?
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In the 2nd game, two Heisman Trophy winners and No. 1 overall draft picks face off for the right to go to their 1st Super Bowl. Carson Palmer has been in the league since 2003 and has 1 playoff win, but he's rarely had a team around him as talented as this. At the age of 36, he knows his years are limited in the league, and this may be his last chance at a Super Bowl. Across the field from him is Cam Newton, who is the clear NFL MVP this year. Newton is only 26, but he's well aware youth is no guarantee you'll get back to a Super Bowl. Newton has made spectacular plays all year, with a stellar tight end and committee of role playing wide receivers, but his stats spiked this year as he threw 17 more TDs and 2 less INTs than last season. Will Superman lead his team to the Super Bowl, or will Carson Palmer finally silence his critics by getting to the big game?
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New England -3
at Denver
The aura and history of this rivalry makes this must watch television. While, I don't think anyone believes this is Tom Brady's last game, it could very well be Peyton Manning's, and even Manning haters would have to reluctantly admit that he's one of the best QBs to ever play the game.
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Looking at the numbers this year though, Manning hasn't even been mediocre. He's statistically had by far his worse season ever. Manning only started 9 games in the regular season this year, due partly to injury and partly the numbers I'm about to illustrate. In the 10 games he played in and 9 games he started this regular season, Manning threw for 2,249 yards (respectable), but he also threw only 9 TDs to 17 INTs. That's undeniably tough to tolerate. You can't have your starting QB turn the ball over twice as much as he is scoring. Additionally, his arm strength has clearly diminished and he's looked like Father Time has finally caught up with him. Still, the positive thing he has going for him is that he has an elite defense on his side. He doesn't have to make big plays to win games; he just has to not make mistakes. He's thrown 1 TD including the playoffs at home this year, but he's still 6-1 in Denver, despite those numbers.
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For the visiting Patriots, Tom Brady, unbelievably, doesn't look to be slowing down. He's had another phenomenal season and put up extremely good numbers yet again, despite being 38 years old, having a patchwork offensive line, that has been decimated by injuries all season, and having his receiving corps on and off of the trainer's table throughout the year. You have to tip your hat to a guy that throws for 4,770 yards, 36 TDs and 7 INTs, and completes 64% of his passes at 38 years old.
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I think this game comes down to how Denver's defense limits Tom Brady's ability to get the ball down field. If Brady has any kind of time, this game isn't going to be close, so expect Wade Phillips to dial up blitzes early and often. An amazing story today is going to be how Denver Cornerback Chris Harris plays. Harris reportedly had problems raising his arm to brush his teeth this week, and yet he's going to play in one of the most vulnerable positions in the AFC Championship game against Tom Brady; that's unfathomable. Additionally, if Gronk doesn't get double teamed all day, Tom Brady will find a way to make Denver sorry. The best thing the Broncos can do is take away Gronk and Edelman and make the other receivers and the Patriots running game beat them.
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Denver is going to have to find ways to manufacture points, but they've been good at that all year. I look for them to disguise a lot of coverages and blitzes and hit Tom Brady as often as possible in hopes to get a turnover. On offense, Peyton Manning is going to have to be a game manager. He's going to have to make short and intermediate throws, especially on 3rd down, and trust his running game.
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Personally, I'd love nothing more than to see Peyton Manning have his last game be at the Super Bowl, but I just can't see it happening outside of a flawless performance. New England looked really good last week against a good defense, and Gronk just looks like he's on another level right now. Tom Brady continues his march to be the G.O.A.T. and heads back to his 7th Super Bowl. Patriots 24 Broncos 16.
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Arizona
at Carolina -3
The nightcap is in Charlotte, as the Panthers host their first ever NFC Championship game in franchise history, against the Arizona Cardinals. These two teams have clearly been the best two teams in the NFC from start to finish, and it appeared destined that they would meet for the right to go to Super Bowl.
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Arizona has a veteran pocket passer, with a very good receiving corps, and a sound defense. Carolina has a dynamic QB who can hurt you both inside and outside of the pocket, a very good running game, and like Arizona, a sound defense. This game is likely going to be won on big plays, and both teams have the ability to make them. Arizona's receiving corps is one of the best in the league and Carolina's secondary outside of Josh Norman has struggled, especially in the 2nd half of games, so I'm expecting a lot of 3-4 wide sets to get favorable matchups.
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Greg Olsen has been the second best tight end in the league this year, so Arizona is likely going to blanket him all game and force Cam to make throws to Ginn, Cotchery, Funchess, and Philly Brown if they want to win. Ted Ginn, Jr. can flat out fly, and I expect Cam to target him down the field for some big gains, as Bruce Arians has said Arizona is going to try and take away Greg Olsen. If you don't think he wants to make the Cardinals pay for cutting him last year, you don't understand sports.
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Newton in his last 9 games is 8-1, with 22 Passing TDs to 1 INT, a Passer Rating of 116.4, and 5 Rushing TDs. Those numbers are impressive, and he's clearly matured in his leadership role this year. Carson Palmer though had an MVPesque season had it not been for Cam Newton, as he threw for 4671 yards 35 TDs and 11 INTs, while averaging nearly 300 yards per game. He's looked poised and composed all year, and with the receivers he has it's easy to see why.
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I expect Carolina to rely on it's strength, the running game, and make Arizona's secondary and linebackers have to commit to the run, which will open up the field for Ginn and Brown to get open. The deciding factor though is going to be Arizona's ability to get to Cam Newton and limit his ability to run outside of the pocket. Newton didn't do much running last week, because he didn't have to, but I think that changes this week and Ron Rivera takes the reins off Cam and let him use his legs more. Additionally, if Carolina gives Carson Palmer time to throw the ball, he's going to find someone open and likely for a big gain, so I see the Panthers defense using it's linebacking corps to bring pressure, because Palmer isn't the most mobile QB in the league.
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With the Panthers getting 3 points at home, you can see that Vegas basically calls this game a push and gives the Panthers the advantage as the home team. It certainly could go either way, but the way the Panthers have played this year, I'm going with Carolina to make enough plays to get to the Super Bowl. I think you'll see some unreal plays from both sides, but the experience Carson Palmer has, which many have people have elaborated on this week, isn't playoff experience. Arizona is going to likely be one dimensional having to throw the ball to win this game. With Cam Newton looking like the best player in football right now, I think he shines today and Carolina holds on with another defensive stop to get to Santa Clara. Carolina 27 Arizona 23.
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Let's hope for a great Championship Sunday in route to the Super Bowl! Cheers!
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With the Wild Card Round over, we move on to the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs, which start today, with Kansas City heading to New England at 4:35 PM EST on CBS, and then the nightcap is Green Bay heading to Arizona at 8:15PM EST on NBC. The Chiefs completely obliterated the Texans last week, winning 30-0, as Brian Hoyer threw 4 INTs in the loss. Green Bay took care of business on the road against the Redskins, 35-18 as the Packers looked like their old selves in route to a victory. Things get a lot tougher for both the Chiefs and Packers as they'll continue their road trip against much better teams who have had the benefit of a week's worth of rest. So, let's see how today's games could play out.
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Kansas City
at New England -4.5
I'll start out by saying I think this is going to be a hard fought game from start to finish. New England has some serious medical concerns with Gronk going to a Boston area hospital for knee injections, and Chandler Jones having a bad reaction to synthetic marijuana. The Patriots should have Julian Edelman back, which will help tremendously, but most of the eyes in Foxboro will be on Tom Terrific after his injury in Miami. Kansas City has their own issues with a banged up Jeremy Maclin suffering from an ankle injury. I think all these guys eventually get on the field today. While the team trainer will do his best to get these players ready, it's the playoffs. Outside of you being completely unable to perform, you're playing.
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Alex Smith will protect the ball and he'll make timely throws to Maclin and Travis Kelce from start to finish, but don't expect the Chiefs to suddenly turn into a huge vertical passing attack. You'll see a lot of out routes, check downs, and slants. Kansas City's success if going to be based on it's 3rd down completion percentage. On defense, the Chiefs have to blitz all day. They need to get Tom Brady out of his comfort zone, and with that make shift offensive line, you can bet Justin Houston and Tamba Hali will get the green light early and often.
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New England will do what it does, and that's run the ball and give Tom Brady the chance to win the game for them. Like Alex Smith, he'll make timely throws to Edelman and Gronk, but the Patriots have the ability to move the ball down the field at a much better pace than Kansas City. Brady's going to be tested to get rid of the ball quickly, so much as the Patriots did in the Super Bowl, I expect him to throw some short passes early to keep Kansas City honest.
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The Chiefs are going to give New England some real problems today. The Patriots have not looked impressive in the last month of the season, while Kansas City has looked stellar since starting 1-5. I've gone back and forth on this game, largely based on the injury report, and I think Kansas City could very well pull off the upset today, but I'm still going with the defending Super Bowl Champs to find a way to win. Look for a late score to keep New England's repeat hopes alive. Patriots 24 Chiefs 21.
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Green Bay
at Arizona -7.5
That brings us to the nightcap in the desert. I know very well that the Arizona Cardinals destroyed Green Bay in Week 16, but we'd likely have arrived at the current scenario anyways with Green Bay having to go back to Arizona in the Divisional Round despite that outcome. As for last week, Green Bay looked good against Washington, but Aaron Rodgers's numbers didn't exactly set the world on fire. They won the game by running the ball effectively and playing good defense. Arizona meanwhile, mailed it in against Seattle in Week 17, and that was probably the right move.
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Outside of Carolina, the Cardinals have looked like the best team in football from start to finish. They play defense well, they run the ball well, they have a good group of receivers, and they have a top notch QB. Here's an interesting statistic though, Carson Palmer, who is 36 years old and has been in the league since 2003, has never won a playoff game. Granted, he's been the victim of bad fortune having to play in Cincinnati and Oakland, before last year's season ending injury in Arizona, but it's still worth noting that he's never won in the postseason.
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That having been said, the Packers are going to have to play flawlessly to win this game. They'll need Rodgers to throw for 300 yards and Eddie Lacy to be able to run the ball effectively against a very good Arizona defense. The good news is that with Mathieu out for the year, they can target the receiver that Patrick Peterson isn't covering. So look for targets to James Jones and Richard Rodgers to open up the running game for Eddie Lacy. On the defensive side of the ball Clay Matthews and Julius Peppers are going to have to get to Carson Palmer if they want to have any chance to get the Cardinals off the field. Palmer has played extremely well all season, and if the Packers give him time, he'll pick them apart.
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I think Arizona jumps out to an early lead today, and they run the ball well to keep Aaron Rodgers off the field. I do expect the Packers to make a late charge and get a back door cover, but I still think this game is Arizona's to lose. Cardinals 31 Packers 24.
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Well, here we are...Week 17 of the NFL season and it couldn't have come fast enough for a lot of teams in the league. Last week saw complete chaos with the Panthers, Patriots, Seahawks, and Steelers all losing to teams they were favored against. The NFC playoffs teams are set, but their seeding is still up for grabs as only the Redskins are locked into their seed heading into the last game of the regular season. In the AFC, there's one Wild Card playoff spot open, with the Jets and Steelers both fighting for it. It's pretty simple for the Jets, win and you're in. For the Steelers, they need the Jets to lose at Buffalo, and they have to beat the Browns, thanks to their awful loss to the Ravens last week. There's also a chance Indy could overtake the Texans for the AFC South crown, but they have to win and hope Houston loses to Jacksonville, plus have a lot happen in order to win the tie breaker, which I won't bore you with. The short version is, that it is extremely unlikely all those games go Indy's way, so Houston should win the AFC South, let's take a look at how the final week of the season could end, and how the playoffs could shape up.
NY Jets -3
at Buffalo
As I indicated above, it's easy for the Jets, win and you're in. Lose, and you better hope Cleveland pulls off a miracle against Pittsburgh. Buffalo will throw everything they have at the Jets, but I think New York is going to be extremely focused in this one. Ryan Fitzpatrick has been playing exceptionally well the last month of the year, and the Jets may have the best WR tandem in the NFL with Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker. With Shady McCoy out, give me the Win and In Jets to clinch a playoff birth in Buffalo. Jets 27 Bills 20.
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New England -9
at Miami
At the beginning of the year, analysts thought this game might decide the AFC East title, but things have not gone well for the Dolphins this year. The Patriots currently have the No. 1 overall seed and they'll get a win today at Miami to ensure that the AFC road to the Super Bowl runs through Foxboro. I expect the Pats to get up by double digits early and then coast through the rest of the game. I know the Patriots have been riddled with injuries, but Miami hasn't looked good all year. Despite all the controversy and injuries, the Patriots will secure home-field advantage today. Patriots 31 Dolphins 17.
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New Orleans
at Atlanta -5.5
The Falcons started off red hot, then looked abysmal for 2 months, then ended up beating a 14-0 Panthers team at home to get to 8-7. The Saints have been up and down all year, playing a lot of close games, but rarely coming out on the winning side of those games. These two teams hate each other, and I expect this game to be a war between two franchises who know they won't play again for another 8 months. Despite good play by Drew Brees, their defense has been awful throughout the season, which should set up nicely for Julio Jones and Matty Ice. Atlanta 30 New Orleans 24.
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Baltimore
at Cincinnati -9.5
How happy were the Ravens on Sunday? That upset, that could very well have knocked the Steelers out of the playoffs, and it had Baltimore fans dancing in the streets despite only winning 5 games this year. With the injuries both teams are suffering at QB, this game is a toss up, despite the 9 point line. The Bengals have a lot more talent though, and with a win and a Denver loss, the Bengals secure a 1st round bye. With a lot more to play for, I'm going with the Bengals to get the win at home, but I think the Ravens make enough plays to cover the spread. Cincy 23 Baltimore 16.
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Pittsburgh -11
at Cleveland
The Steelers completely blew it last week losing to the Ravens. It was a complete meltdown, against Ryan Mallett and the Ravens. I don't think they make the same mistake against the Browns this week. With Austin Davis starting for the Browns, the Steelers should be able to secure a victory. This one should be a blowout, and they'll keep a close eye on the score in Buffalo. Steelers 34 Cleveland 13.
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Jacksonville
at Houston -6.5
At the beginning of the year, I didn't think the Texans had any shot at the postseason, but solid defense and a seemingly season-ending injury to Andrew Luck propelled the Texans into a situation where they're likely going to win the AFC South and host a playoff game. In Jacksonville, the Jags have only won 5 games this year, but they've found their QB and No. 1 WR, so that gives them the chance to focus on their defense in the draft. Gus Bradley has been told he'll be retained, but Jacksonville better get to the playoffs next year if he wants his services retained for 2017. I think this is a game Houston finds a way to win, but Jacksonville covers the spread. Texans 27 Jags 23.
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Tennessee
at Indianapolis Even
With Indy being the trendy pick for the Super Bowl at the beginning of the year, this has not been the year the Colts were hoping for after Andrew Luck's injury. The organization looks poised to make a change at the head coaching position, and you can bet Jimmy Sexton will get a call for several of his clients. As for this game, if Tennessee loses they secure the No. 1 overall pick, so they actually have a pretty strong incentive to lose this game, and I think they will, even with the problems Indy has had. Give me the Colts to get a win 20-17.
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Washington
at Dallas -3.5
If I'm the Redskins, I sit every single starter this week. You're not going to increase or decrease your playoff position, so this is your bye week. I wouldn't even let Kirk Cousins dress for this game. Dallas should come out and just throw the ball all day with Kellen Moore, because they have nothing to lose. I'm going with the Cowboys, but I don't feel good about it. Dallas 22 Washington 20.
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Philadelphia
at NY Giants -5
The Chip Kelly era comes to an end in Philly, and begins in Tennessee...? Well, we'll see, but you can bet the Titans give his agent a call. The Eagles need a lot of help because they've completely changed their roster and they're going to have to rebuild that team from scratch. The Giants will likely say goodbye to Tom Coughlin after today, and he's had a great NFL career. Despite the Giants' own concerns with personnel, I'm going with the Giants to get a win to send Coughlin off with a nice swan song at home, but this was a year where the Giants should have been playing for at least one more week. Giants 28 Eagles 23.
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Detroit -1
at Chicago
The Lions and Bears both hoped they could sneak into the playoff this year, but that just didn't happen. Both teams sit at 6-9, but I think Detroit is the better team. They started the year 1-7, but are 5-2 since that start. The Bears haven't been able to find their rhythm all year, and will likely lose their offensive coordinator to a head coaching job at the end of the season. Chicago also is going to have to make a tough decision as Matt Forte and Alshon Jeffery's contracts are up this year. I think Stafford throws early and often and Chicago has trouble defending against Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate. Lions 30 Bears 24.
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Tampa Bay
at Carolina -10
The perfect season is over in Carolina, but the bigger issue is whether or not they can secure home-field advantage today. It's going to be tough with Ted Ginn, Jr., and Kirk Coleman doubtful, plus Jonathan Stewart and Fozzy Whitaker out. This is a game where Cam and Olsen are going to have to take over, and the defense is going to have to play light's out, but I think they'll get it done. That line is huge considering all of Carolina's injuries. Give me the Panthers at home 27 - 21.
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Oakland
at Kansas City -7
Kansas City has had a phenomenal 2nd half to their season. A team that looked left for dead is going to the playoffs, and could easily win their Wild Card round game. I don't think this team is headed to the Super Bowl, but Andy Reid and Alex Smith have certainly made for a nice tandem. Oakland also looks like they're headed in the right direction, but they still need to add some pieces before they can compete for the playoffs on a regular basis. Kansas City 20 Oakland 17.
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San Diego
at Denver -9
The Chargers have had a tough season, while Denver has been able to overcome a lot of adversity, namely that of Peyton Manning declining in his play, then being injured for a good portion of the season. Even with Brock under center and Peyton on the sideline, I like the Broncos to get it done and lock down the No. 2 seed. Broncos 24 Chargers 17.
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Seattle
at Arizona -6.5
The NFL moved the Panthers-Bucs game to later in the afternoon, due largely to the fact that if Carolina won, this game wouldn't be nearly as exciting. The Cardinals have looked pretty impressive all season, and Seattle has been good, but they still have 6 loses. Arizona is fighting with the Panthers for the No. 1 overall seed, and Seattle's only question is whether they will be the 5 or the 6 seed. With a LOT to play for, I'm going with the Cardinals at home. They're arguably the most complete team in the NFL right now. Arizona 27 Seattle 20.
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St. Louis
at San Francisco -3.5
The Rams and 49ers can't wait for this season to end and the only celebrating they'll be doing will likely be on draft day. Both have major questions at QB and the head coaching position. The Rams have won 3 games in a row to get to 7-8, and they have an opportunity to end the season at 8-8 in Santa Clara. With the Rams having suddenly surged and the 49ers struggling to score points all year, I'm going with Case Keenum and Todd Gurley to get a win against San Fran 24 - 19.
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Minnesota
at Green Bay -3
The final regular season game of the year decides who wins the NFC North. Green Bay got absolutely throttled by Arizona last week, and Minnesota took care of business against a depleted Giants team. Green Bay has struggled on defense all year, and you can bet that Minnesota is hoping to ride Adrian Peterson to an NFC North crown. If this game were anywhere but Lambeau, I'd like the Vikings, but it's hard to go against Green Bay at home in a meaningful game. Packers 30 Vikings 28.
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It's been a fun regular season, and I'll be listening to the games on the road today as I head back from the Sugar Bowl. Cheers to the Playoffs!
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Oakland started off Week 15 with an Overtime win against San Diego, for what might be the last home game played in Oakland. Personally, I'd like to see the Raiders stay in the Bay Area, but they clearly need a new stadium. Still, the Black and Silver look like they've got a bright future ahead of them wherever they make their home.
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In the Saturday Night game, we saw that Kirk Cousins doesn't understand the difference between kneeling down vs. spiking the football to stop the clock when you don't have any timeouts remaining. It didn't matter in the grand scheme of things though as the Eagles handed the Redskins the NFC East title. Chip Kelly's seat is going to get mighty hot in 2016.
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New England -3
at NY Jets
The Patriots are likely looking at the No. 1 overall seed and home field advantage in the AFC yet again this season. The Jets are trying to hang on and get a wild card spot, and they'll likely need to beat the Pats at MetLife to do it. This should be another classic rivalry game, as the Jets know they pretty much have to win out to continue playing after next week. Brady's record against the Jets is pretty impressive, so it's hard for me to pick against him, especially based on the fact that Ryan Fitzpatrick has only had 1 win against the Pats in his entire career. I think the Jets throw everything they have at New England, but fall just short in a close game. Patriots 27 Jets 24.
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Houston -3.5
at Tennessee
With Mariota out for this week and Houston starting Brandon Weeden, this isn't exactly the game CBS was hoping for. Still, if Houston takes care of business against the Titans and Jaguars they'll be hosting a playoff game as the AFC South Champs, and if you watched Hard Knocks this year, that didn't look possible at the start of the season. Even with Weeden leading the Texans, I still like the way they've found ways to win games this year, and DeAndre Hopkins is a better receiver than anything Tennessee has to offer. The Titans continue to be a mess, and look to be drafting again early in 2016. Houston 23 Tennessee 16.
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Cleveland
at Kansas City -10.5
Christmas was not kind to the Cleveland Browns as Armonty Bryant and DeAnte Saunders found that the Ohio State Highway Patrol is little more hard-nosed with their naughty list than St. Nick. Manziel hasn't played poorly in his starts this year, but his teammates haven't been able to help much, outside of Gary Barnidge, as the Browns sit at 3-11. Kansas City meanwhile has won 8 straight games, and looks poised to head to the postseason after starting the year 1-5. Cleveland hasn't been able to stop teams from scoring, and though Kansas City doesn't always light up the score, they'll do enough to win this one comfortably. Chiefs 31 Browns 17.
Courtesy of fansided.com
Indianapolis
at Miami -2.5
At the beginning of the season this looked like a really good Week 16 matchup between 2 playoff teams, but now Indy is on the outside looking in, and Miami is on the phone with Sean Payton's agent. Matt Hasselbeck is expected to start, but he's starting to show his age as he struggles to stay upright behind a weak offensive line. This is a really tough game to predict, because Indy has something to play for, but Miami is the healthier team and playing at home. The key for the Dolphins is getting Hasselbeck out of his comfort zone, by hitting him early and often. I think they limit his effectiveness by blitzing early, and we see Charlie Whitehurst by the day's end. Dolphins 27 Colts 22.
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San Francisco
at Detroit -9.5
Matt Stafford and the Lions have found ways to lose this year, despite being extremely competitive in most of their games. The Lions jumped out to a big lead against the Saints on Monday Night, then hung on for the win. On the West Coast, the Jim Tomsula era looks to be coming to a close in San Fran, much to surprise of no one. Winning 4 games has been impressive so far, considering expectations, and the 49ers may get to 5 wins this year, but it won't be this week. Lions 30 49ers 20.
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Dallas
at Buffalo -6.5
Oh Cowboys and Bills fans...if only this was 1993. With both teams suffering a number of injuries and having their seasons secured to end next week, give me the Bills to get the win at home. No Tony Romo, no Dez, and a banged up Witten, plus having to play on the road doesn't spell success for Dallas. Bills 24 Cowboys 17.
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Chicago
at Tampa Bay -3
If this game was in Chicago, I'd go with the Bears, but the 3 point line pretty much means Vegas thinks these teams are evenly matched so they're giving the edge to Tampa Bay, and so am I. Doug Martin is 2nd in the league in rushing, sitting only 9 yards behind Adrian Peterson heading into the final two weeks of the season. Moreover, Jameis Winston has been about what we expected, he's looked like a rookie at times, but also made some dynamic plays and Tampa's selection...so far...looks to have been a smart one. The Bears got trounced by the Vikings last week, and I think it was a mistake to get rid of Lovie Smith in the first place, as they haven't had much success since he left. Give me the Bucs to get a win over Chicago at home 26 - 21.
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Carolina -6.5
at Atlanta
Carolina took the Falcons to the woodshed 2 weeks ago in Charlotte, beating them 38-0, and you can bet Dan Quinn used that game, and the late game team photos by the Panthers, as motivation for this week. A win by the Panthers secures that the NFC runs through the Queen City, but Carolina, who jumped out to a big lead against the Giants has had a history this year of letting teams back into games. The Falcons got a much needed win last week against Jacksonville, and this game will be a lot closer than 38-0, but I still don't see Atlanta being able to outscore the Panthers, with the way Cam Newton is playing. Panthers 31 Atlanta 24.
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Pittsburgh -10
at Baltimore
Normally, you wouldn't see this kind of line in a Steelers-Ravens game, but Pittsburgh has Antonio Brown at wideout and Big Ben under center, and Baltimore has the option of starting Matt Schaub, Ryan Mallett, or Jimmy Clausen. The Steelers look poised to make a run in January, and they should win comfortably against a banged up Ravens team that can't wait for 2016 to get here. Steelers 34 Ravens 16.
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Jacksonville
at New Orleans -3
Blake Bortles looks like he might be the best overall QB out of the 2014 class, though Teddy Bridgewater and the Viking faithful would vehemently disagree with that. With Drew Brees struggling with a torn plantar fascia, I don't see why you'd risk getting Brees hurt for the long term by playing him in this game. Whether the Saints decided to trade him in 2016 or try and make one more run with him at the helm, an injured Drew Brees helps no one. Reports out this morning are that Brees will play and being that this could be the last game for the Payton-Brees Era in New Orleans, I'll go with the Saints to get a win at home. Saints 35 Jags 31.
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St. Louis
at Seattle -12
Seattle has looked mighty tough the last month of the season, and they'll continue their winning streak against the Rams at home this week. There's not much to say here. Seattle wins and covers against a Rams team that's likely headed to L.A. Seahawks 28 St. Louis 13.
Courtesy of fansided.com
Green Bay
at Arizona -4.5
This could be a playoff preview with the Packers heading to Arizona to take on the Cardinals. The Packers sit with a 1 game lead on Minnesota, and a Week 17 showdown in Lambeau, but they can clinch the NFC North with a win today and a Minnesota loss. Green Bay has had troubles on defense, but with The Honey Badger out for the year, it's Arizona's defense that has questions swirling around it heading into the playoffs. I'd look for Rodgers to avoid throwing to Patrick Peterson and focus on the other side of the field with Mathieu out and he's still an elite QB, but I like the offensive weapons and supporting cast in Arizona more than I do Green Bay. Despite multiple injuries in the running game, Arizona finds ways to get production running the football and keeps rolling. It looks like Andre Ellington will play today, but David Johnson has been awfully good filling in for him. Cardinals 27 Packers 24.
Courtesy of twincities.com
NY Giants
at Minnesota -6
The NY Giants will be without their best player, not named Eli Manning, this week against Minnesota. Unless you have been living off the grid, you're likely familiar with the Norman-Beckham showdown last Sunday. When I wrote that it would be must see television, that's not exactly what I was expecting. Beckham clearly should have been ejected multiple times after throwing punches at multiple players and launching himself head first at Josh Norman, and Norman deserved a fine for his unnecessary roughness throughout the game on Beckham. The League acted to correct the failures by the officials to adequately controls the game on both sides, and for once I actually agree with the punishment for both players. Now, as for this week, Minnesota still has the NFC North crown in its sights with Green Bay having to go to Arizona, and the having the league's leading rusher suit up against a porous New York run defense. Without Beckham, I don't think the Giants have enough weapons to compete with a more disciplined Vikings team, and with Washington clinching the NFC East last night, the Giants don't have nearly as much to play for this week. Minnesota gets it done at home and Week 17 in Lambeau is for the NFC North title. Minnesota 31 New York 20.
Courtesy of foxsports.com
Cincinnati
at Denver -3
The NFL was hoping this would be Peyton Manning vs. Andy Dalton and a preview of the possible AFC Championship, but as fate would have it, NFL fans are treated to a Monday Night Football showdown between AJ McCarron and Brock Osweiler. Cincy got a vital win on the road against the 49ers last week, while Denver has lost two in a row to Oakland and Pittsburgh. With Osweiler having more experience, a better defense, and playing at home, I'm going with the Broncos to get a close win against the Bengals. This game could very well decide who gets a 1st round bye in the playoffs and who has to play in the Wild Card Round, so both teams will come out guns blazing, but I believe in Osweiler more than I do AJ McCarron. Broncos 28 Bengals 24.
Courtesy of achristmasstoryhouse.com
With Christmas behind us and the New Year and Playoffs quickly approaching, we're likely to see some unusual games come January. Cheers to the rest of the holidays!
