With the Wild Card Round over, we move on to the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs, which start today, with Kansas City heading to New England at 4:35 PM EST on CBS, and then the nightcap is Green Bay heading to Arizona at 8:15PM EST on NBC. The Chiefs completely obliterated the Texans last week, winning 30-0, as Brian Hoyer threw 4 INTs in the loss. Green Bay took care of business on the road against the Redskins, 35-18 as the Packers looked like their old selves in route to a victory. Things get a lot tougher for both the Chiefs and Packers as they'll continue their road trip against much better teams who have had the benefit of a week's worth of rest. So, let's see how today's games could play out.
Kansas City
at New England -4.5
I'll start out by saying I think this is going to be a hard fought game from start to finish. New England has some serious medical concerns with Gronk going to a Boston area hospital for knee injections, and Chandler Jones having a bad reaction to synthetic marijuana. The Patriots should have Julian Edelman back, which will help tremendously, but most of the eyes in Foxboro will be on Tom Terrific after his injury in Miami. Kansas City has their own issues with a banged up Jeremy Maclin suffering from an ankle injury. I think all these guys eventually get on the field today. While the team trainer will do his best to get these players ready, it's the playoffs. Outside of you being completely unable to perform, you're playing.
Alex Smith will protect the ball and he'll make timely throws to Maclin and Travis Kelce from start to finish, but don't expect the Chiefs to suddenly turn into a huge vertical passing attack. You'll see a lot of out routes, check downs, and slants. Kansas City's success if going to be based on it's 3rd down completion percentage. On defense, the Chiefs have to blitz all day. They need to get Tom Brady out of his comfort zone, and with that make shift offensive line, you can bet Justin Houston and Tamba Hali will get the green light early and often.
New England will do what it does, and that's run the ball and give Tom Brady the chance to win the game for them. Like Alex Smith, he'll make timely throws to Edelman and Gronk, but the Patriots have the ability to move the ball down the field at a much better pace than Kansas City. Brady's going to be tested to get rid of the ball quickly, so much as the Patriots did in the Super Bowl, I expect him to throw some short passes early to keep Kansas City honest.
The Chiefs are going to give New England some real problems today. The Patriots have not looked impressive in the last month of the season, while Kansas City has looked stellar since starting 1-5. I've gone back and forth on this game, largely based on the injury report, and I think Kansas City could very well pull off the upset today, but I'm still going with the defending Super Bowl Champs to find a way to win. Look for a late score to keep New England's repeat hopes alive. Patriots 24 Chiefs 21.
Green Bay
at Arizona -7.5
That brings us to the nightcap in the desert. I know very well that the Arizona Cardinals destroyed Green Bay in Week 16, but we'd likely have arrived at the current scenario anyways with Green Bay having to go back to Arizona in the Divisional Round despite that outcome. As for last week, Green Bay looked good against Washington, but Aaron Rodgers's numbers didn't exactly set the world on fire. They won the game by running the ball effectively and playing good defense. Arizona meanwhile, mailed it in against Seattle in Week 17, and that was probably the right move.
Outside of Carolina, the Cardinals have looked like the best team in football from start to finish. They play defense well, they run the ball well, they have a good group of receivers, and they have a top notch QB. Here's an interesting statistic though, Carson Palmer, who is 36 years old and has been in the league since 2003, has never won a playoff game. Granted, he's been the victim of bad fortune having to play in Cincinnati and Oakland, before last year's season ending injury in Arizona, but it's still worth noting that he's never won in the postseason.
That having been said, the Packers are going to have to play flawlessly to win this game. They'll need Rodgers to throw for 300 yards and Eddie Lacy to be able to run the ball effectively against a very good Arizona defense. The good news is that with Mathieu out for the year, they can target the receiver that Patrick Peterson isn't covering. So look for targets to James Jones and Richard Rodgers to open up the running game for Eddie Lacy. On the defensive side of the ball Clay Matthews and Julius Peppers are going to have to get to Carson Palmer if they want to have any chance to get the Cardinals off the field. Palmer has played extremely well all season, and if the Packers give him time, he'll pick them apart.
I think Arizona jumps out to an early lead today, and they run the ball well to keep Aaron Rodgers off the field. I do expect the Packers to make a late charge and get a back door cover, but I still think this game is Arizona's to lose. Cardinals 31 Packers 24.
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