Championship Sunday has finally arrived, and in true Vegas fashion, it'll be two No. 1 seeds vs. two No. 2 seeds, as the road to the Super Bowl gets decided today in Denver and Charlotte.
Last week, New England took care of business against Kansas City, as they never trailed the entire day. Gronk looked unstoppable, with a pair of TDs and the game didn't look like it was ever in doubt. Kansas City's clock management issues didn't help matters, and even with a late score by the Chiefs, the Patriots won 27-20.
In Denver, the Broncos beat a hobbled Steelers team 23-16. Trailing 13-12 heading to the 4th quarter, Denver reached the end zone with 3 minutes remaining to take a 20-13 lead, then tacked on a field goal for insurance. Pittsburgh managed a late field goal with 19 seconds remaining, but couldn't get the ball back to tie the game. Big Ben did all he could, but it wasn't enough, and the Broncos win set up Brady - Manning XVII.
On the NFC side, Arizona jumped out to a sizable lead against Green Bay only to see Aaron Rodgers complete 4th down after 4th down and a last second Hail Mary to send the game into overtime. Arizona would win the coin toss, after the coin initially did not flip, and march down the field winning the game on a shovel pass to Larry Fitzgerald, in a game that shouldn't have been that close, but certainly made for pure sports entertainment.
In Charlotte, Carolina demolished Seattle in the 1st half, based on a pair of Russell Wilson interceptions, one of which was returned by Luke Keuchly for a touchdown to jump out to a 31-0 lead that no one saw coming. The Panthers then played prevent defense and an overly conservative on offense in the 2nd half to hang on for a 31-24 win.
So, that brings us to today's games, and you really couldn't ask for better story lines. In the early game, two 1st ballot Hall of Famers square off for the 17th time overall, and their 5th AFC Championship game against each other, with both Manning and Brady having won twice. Will Peyton Manning make it to the Super Bowl one final time, by beating his archrival, or will Tom Brady and Bill Belichick end Manning's career in poetic fashion and head back to the Super Bowl for a 7th time?
In the 2nd game, two Heisman Trophy winners and No. 1 overall draft picks face off for the right to go to their 1st Super Bowl. Carson Palmer has been in the league since 2003 and has 1 playoff win, but he's rarely had a team around him as talented as this. At the age of 36, he knows his years are limited in the league, and this may be his last chance at a Super Bowl. Across the field from him is Cam Newton, who is the clear NFL MVP this year. Newton is only 26, but he's well aware youth is no guarantee you'll get back to a Super Bowl. Newton has made spectacular plays all year, with a stellar tight end and committee of role playing wide receivers, but his stats spiked this year as he threw 17 more TDs and 2 less INTs than last season. Will Superman lead his team to the Super Bowl, or will Carson Palmer finally silence his critics by getting to the big game?
New England -3
at Denver
The aura and history of this rivalry makes this must watch television. While, I don't think anyone believes this is Tom Brady's last game, it could very well be Peyton Manning's, and even Manning haters would have to reluctantly admit that he's one of the best QBs to ever play the game.
Looking at the numbers this year though, Manning hasn't even been mediocre. He's statistically had by far his worse season ever. Manning only started 9 games in the regular season this year, due partly to injury and partly the numbers I'm about to illustrate. In the 10 games he played in and 9 games he started this regular season, Manning threw for 2,249 yards (respectable), but he also threw only 9 TDs to 17 INTs. That's undeniably tough to tolerate. You can't have your starting QB turn the ball over twice as much as he is scoring. Additionally, his arm strength has clearly diminished and he's looked like Father Time has finally caught up with him. Still, the positive thing he has going for him is that he has an elite defense on his side. He doesn't have to make big plays to win games; he just has to not make mistakes. He's thrown 1 TD including the playoffs at home this year, but he's still 6-1 in Denver, despite those numbers.
For the visiting Patriots, Tom Brady, unbelievably, doesn't look to be slowing down. He's had another phenomenal season and put up extremely good numbers yet again, despite being 38 years old, having a patchwork offensive line, that has been decimated by injuries all season, and having his receiving corps on and off of the trainer's table throughout the year. You have to tip your hat to a guy that throws for 4,770 yards, 36 TDs and 7 INTs, and completes 64% of his passes at 38 years old.
I think this game comes down to how Denver's defense limits Tom Brady's ability to get the ball down field. If Brady has any kind of time, this game isn't going to be close, so expect Wade Phillips to dial up blitzes early and often. An amazing story today is going to be how Denver Cornerback Chris Harris plays. Harris reportedly had problems raising his arm to brush his teeth this week, and yet he's going to play in one of the most vulnerable positions in the AFC Championship game against Tom Brady; that's unfathomable. Additionally, if Gronk doesn't get double teamed all day, Tom Brady will find a way to make Denver sorry. The best thing the Broncos can do is take away Gronk and Edelman and make the other receivers and the Patriots running game beat them.
Denver is going to have to find ways to manufacture points, but they've been good at that all year. I look for them to disguise a lot of coverages and blitzes and hit Tom Brady as often as possible in hopes to get a turnover. On offense, Peyton Manning is going to have to be a game manager. He's going to have to make short and intermediate throws, especially on 3rd down, and trust his running game.
Personally, I'd love nothing more than to see Peyton Manning have his last game be at the Super Bowl, but I just can't see it happening outside of a flawless performance. New England looked really good last week against a good defense, and Gronk just looks like he's on another level right now. Tom Brady continues his march to be the G.O.A.T. and heads back to his 7th Super Bowl. Patriots 24 Broncos 16.
Arizona
at Carolina -3
The nightcap is in Charlotte, as the Panthers host their first ever NFC Championship game in franchise history, against the Arizona Cardinals. These two teams have clearly been the best two teams in the NFC from start to finish, and it appeared destined that they would meet for the right to go to Super Bowl.
Arizona has a veteran pocket passer, with a very good receiving corps, and a sound defense. Carolina has a dynamic QB who can hurt you both inside and outside of the pocket, a very good running game, and like Arizona, a sound defense. This game is likely going to be won on big plays, and both teams have the ability to make them. Arizona's receiving corps is one of the best in the league and Carolina's secondary outside of Josh Norman has struggled, especially in the 2nd half of games, so I'm expecting a lot of 3-4 wide sets to get favorable matchups.
Greg Olsen has been the second best tight end in the league this year, so Arizona is likely going to blanket him all game and force Cam to make throws to Ginn, Cotchery, Funchess, and Philly Brown if they want to win. Ted Ginn, Jr. can flat out fly, and I expect Cam to target him down the field for some big gains, as Bruce Arians has said Arizona is going to try and take away Greg Olsen. If you don't think he wants to make the Cardinals pay for cutting him last year, you don't understand sports.
Newton in his last 9 games is 8-1, with 22 Passing TDs to 1 INT, a Passer Rating of 116.4, and 5 Rushing TDs. Those numbers are impressive, and he's clearly matured in his leadership role this year. Carson Palmer though had an MVPesque season had it not been for Cam Newton, as he threw for 4671 yards 35 TDs and 11 INTs, while averaging nearly 300 yards per game. He's looked poised and composed all year, and with the receivers he has it's easy to see why.
I expect Carolina to rely on it's strength, the running game, and make Arizona's secondary and linebackers have to commit to the run, which will open up the field for Ginn and Brown to get open. The deciding factor though is going to be Arizona's ability to get to Cam Newton and limit his ability to run outside of the pocket. Newton didn't do much running last week, because he didn't have to, but I think that changes this week and Ron Rivera takes the reins off Cam and let him use his legs more. Additionally, if Carolina gives Carson Palmer time to throw the ball, he's going to find someone open and likely for a big gain, so I see the Panthers defense using it's linebacking corps to bring pressure, because Palmer isn't the most mobile QB in the league.
With the Panthers getting 3 points at home, you can see that Vegas basically calls this game a push and gives the Panthers the advantage as the home team. It certainly could go either way, but the way the Panthers have played this year, I'm going with Carolina to make enough plays to get to the Super Bowl. I think you'll see some unreal plays from both sides, but the experience Carson Palmer has, which many have people have elaborated on this week, isn't playoff experience. Arizona is going to likely be one dimensional having to throw the ball to win this game. With Cam Newton looking like the best player in football right now, I think he shines today and Carolina holds on with another defensive stop to get to Santa Clara. Carolina 27 Arizona 23.
Courtesy of halfmoonbaygolf.com
Let's hope for a great Championship Sunday in route to the Super Bowl! Cheers!
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