We have finally arrived at Super Bowl Sunday, with The Sheriff taking on Superman. 49 Super Bowls have been held before with some memorable outcomes; my personal favorite was the Rams - Titans Super Bowl that ended with the Titans coming up 1 yard short of greatness as time expired, but we've also had some other extremely phenomenal games, especially last year's Seahawks - Patriots game that ended on what might possibly be the dumbest play call in the history of the Super Bowl.
Poor Richard Sherman. He looks like someone just told him that in November his choices for President are Cruz/Trump or Hillary/Bernie. As for this year, the Broncos and Panthers head to Super Bowl 50 in the San Francisco Bay Area, and maybe it's just me, but I feel like for the sake of nostalgia the announcer has to start off the opening ceremony with...
OK, OK, I know technically the Super Bowl is in Santa Clara, but honestly no one outside of California knows where that is, and the glory and awe that comes with just mentioning this awesomely ridiculous 90's Nicolas Cage movie, is what the world needs to open the biggest game in the world.
Carolina -5.5
vs. Denver
Now, on to the game. The Panthers come in at 5 1/2 point favorites, as they finished the regular season at 15-1 and coasted to the Super Bowl after beating up on two very good Seattle and Arizona teams. Denver's path was a little more arduous, despite finishing at 12-4 and securing home field advantage. All season they relied heavily on their defense to help them win games. In the Playoffs, they struggled against an injury depleted Pittsburgh team, but managed a 4th quarter comeback to head to the AFC Championship game, where they faced the Patriots. In that game they blitzed early and often against Tom Brady and due to an early missed extra point by the Patriots, the Broncos were able to advance to the Super Bowl on a failed 2 point conversion attempt by New England.
So, that brings up the question, do you go with a team that has dominated their opponents all year, or the gritty veteran team that knows how to win close games? There are competing arguments for both, and I've heard a lot of analysts compare this game to former Super Bowls, but the fact is this Super Bowl is extremely unique and here's why.
Let's go ahead and get the obvious one out of the way. This is New School vs. Old School in terms of QBs. Cam Newton is indubitably the NFL's MVP. He's the most electric player in sports right now, and the NFL couldn't be happier. Peyton Manning is a legend. He's a first ballot Hall of Famer and one of the best QB's to ever throw a pass in The League.
That having been said, they have two extremely different styles. Manning is a businesslike cerebral tactician, who has had to rely more on his mental preparation, as his athletic skills have clearly diminished. He doesn't have the arm strength he used to, but with his defense he doesn't have to throw for 300 yards to win games. He just has to make timely throws and not turn the ball over.
Newton is a physical anomaly. He's 6'5 250lbs with a rocket arm, and runs like a deer in the open field, and an Abrams tank in short yardage situations. However, the biggest thing the media has been talking about this week though is his personality, and how he celebrates after first downs, touchdowns, and on the sidelines, and that's not what we're used to seeing from QBs.
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Football is a game, and games are supposed to be fun, and if you make a big play, whether you're a QB, WR, Defensive Tackle, or Punter you should be able to celebrate however you wish as long as it's not taunting your opponent.
As far as what I think will happen tonight between Newton and Manning, I think you'll see what we've seen all year from both of these QBs. Newton will make some flashy plays and throw the ball down the field and create some excitement with misdirection and designed QBs runs. Manning will manage the game the same way he did against the Steelers and Patriots. The Broncos will run the ball early and see if they can get some mismatches against the Panthers secondary between the numbers.
Now, for the defense. Denver's got the best the defense in the NFL. They're extremely talented and disciplined, and they're going to pose a big challenge for Newton and the Panthers. Wade Phillips just won Assistant Coach of the Year, and he deserved it. He's done a great job at drawing up schemes and blitzes to terrorize opposing QBs. Tom Brady was hit more times in the AFC Championship game than he has been all season, and the Broncos defense is the No. 1 reason why they're in the Super Bowl. Von Miller was well worth the No. 2 overall pick in the draft in 2011, and he clearly showed that against New England, and Talib and Harris have made been a very effective tandem in the secondary.
The Panther defense finished 6th in the league, with elite players at all 3 levels. They have arguably one of the best defensive tackles in football right now in Kawann Short, two pro bowl linebackers in Kuechly and Thomas Davis, and a pro bowl cornerback in Josh Norman, who is expected to be franchised at the end of the season. The play a lot of zone coverage and rely on the speed of their linebackers and pressure from the front 4 to get after the QB, and it's been a good strategy all year.
Ultimately you have to give the edge to the Denver, based on the numbers; that defense is the reason they're in the Super Bowl and it's kept them in games all year. The Panthers still have a top tier defense and a lot of the points and yards they gave up in games were in the 2nd half when they had huge leads, but they've also been hurt badly by injuries, especially in the secondary.
A huge X factor in this game could be the running backs. Jonathan Stewart has been steady and reliable for most of the year. Stewart was 7th in the league in rushing, and that was having missed 2 games due to injury. He rushed for 989 yards on 242 carries, a 4 yard average and 76 yards per game. Those numbers don't jump off the page, but it's steady production. In the playoffs, Stewart's been even better running for 189 yards on 38 carries, a 5 yard per carry average with 95 yards per game.
For Denver, C.J. Anderson finished 29th in the NFL in rushing with 720 yards on 152 carries, a 4.7 yard average, with 48 yards per game. The key to that number is his yards per carry. Despite his reduced overall carries, he's making the most out of the ones he does get. In the playoffs he's also increased his production, he's been 2nd in the league to only Stewart, as he's rushed for 144 yards on 31 carries, a 4.6 yard average with 72 yards per game.
The real difference between the running game of the Panthers and the Broncos is that Carolina has the additional threats of Cam Newton, Mike Tolbert, and Ted Ginn, Jr./Philly Brown on reverse sweeps. Denver is largely one dimensional with Anderson. The ability for Carolina to use multiple sets to move the ball on the ground, gives them the superior edge against Denver in the running game.
I've listened to a lot of analysts all weak try and break down this game, and I agree with the general consensus. If Denver can keep the game close late into the 2nd half they have a really good chance, based on momentum to come out with a victory. However, if the Panthers get up early by more than one touchdown, it's over. Carolina has a better running game, a more explosive passing attack, a better offensive line, a good defense of their own, and clearly the better QB. Manning isn't going to be able to put this team on his back and win games the way he used to. He's going to need to play conservative football and hope Carolina makes multiple mistakes. He's had a phenomenal career, and this is his last game regardless of the outcome, so it's great to see him be able to end his career on the world's biggest stage.
Denver's defense is the best in the league, but they've struggled in the playoffs against a Pittsburgh team, missing 2 of its best players, and New England with a bad offensive line. The Panthers will throw everything they have at Denver, and I expect Newton to shine tonight. Mike Shula hasn't been given enough credit because of Newton's talents, but his play calling has been nothing short of brilliant this year. Denver will do their best to take away Greg Olsen and make Newton beat them with throws to Cotchery, Ginn, Brown, and Funchess, but the Panthers have adapted to that strategy all year. When Kelvin Benjamin went down with injury many, including myself, thought 8 wins was the ceiling for this team, but the production by committee approach has flourished in Charlotte, and it continues again tonight. I think it's close for most of the first half, but Carolina pulls away and wins this one 27-17.
Cheers to a great NFL Season and enjoy the Super Bowl! September can't get here fast enough.
