The NFL Draft moves to Chicago this year, and with the presumptive top 2 QBs both declining to attend, it's not going to be nearly as exciting. Still, there should be some fireworks on draft day. I'll be out of the country during the draft and doing the best I can to follow things on my phone. So, since some of friends enjoyed last year's mock draft, here is how things could play out in the 1st round on April 30th.
Courtesy of collegespun.com
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Jameis Winston QB FSU
Unless Jameis Winston gets arrested in the next week, he's going to Tampa Bay. Everyone pretty much agrees it's a done deal. Winston will move just south of his FSU stomping grounds to Tampa and immediately become the starter (sorry Mike Glennon). There's also a lot of trade rumors out there that Tampa Bay is trying to pick up Adrian Peterson from Minnesota via a trade, and they have the money to do it. Adding Winston and Peterson would definitely strengthen a team that statistically ranked near the bottom of the league in offense last year.
2. Tennessee Titans trade their pick to the San Diego Chargers for Philip Rivers (swap 1st round picks and San Diego gives up their 3rd round pick) - Marcus Mariota QB Oregon
The Chargers and Rivers are on the outs. A lot of smart GMs know it's better to trade a player a year early than get nothing for him when he becomes a free agent. San Diego isn't going to the Super Bowl anytime soon and Rivers obviously doesn't want to come back or he'd have agreed to an extension. San Diego needs a QB if they do trade Rivers and Tennessee makes a logical trading partner. They move up to get Mariota and give up a 3rd round pick in the process. Mariota stays on the West Coast and then you build for the future. As for Tennessee, they get a QB reunited with Ken Whisenhunt and try and work out a long term deal. Bolo ties play a lot better in Nashville than they do in San Diego.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars - Dante Fowler, Jr. DE/OLB Florida
I think again like Winston, most people agree Fowler is staying in Florida and going to Jacksonville. He'll provide immediately help on the defensive side of the ball in a division that has to play Andrew Luck and now Philip Rivers twice a year.
4. Oakland Raiders - Amari Cooper WR Alabama
Reggie McKenzie should be running to the stage to hand in this pick. Cooper is the best WR in the draft. He's better than Kevin White and Devante Parker. Want proof? Go watch the 2nd half of the Iron Bowl and watch him absolutely dominate Auburn's secondary. He had 124 catches and over 1700 yards last season. That's unreal, especially on a team where you know if they are going to to throw the ball that's who it is going to, and you still can't stop him. He'll immediately be the No. 1 WR in Oakland and give Carr a legitimate weapon to throw to for years to come.
5. Washington Redskins - Leonard Williams DE USC
Washington actually lucks out here as Williams falls to No. 5 and they get a star DE to help out their defense. The Redskins are going to need a pass rusher to deal with Chip Kelly's offense, Tony Romo, and Eli Manning, and they get arguably the best one in the draft.
6. NY Jets - Shane Ray DE Mizzou
The Jets love improving their defense and they get a very good pass rusher in Shane Ray out of Mizzou. The Tigers are putting defensive players into the NFL at an impressive rate every year, and don't seem to be slowing down anytime soon. Ray's athletic stats are off the chart, but he still needs work on his technique. He could start right away though if he improves his skills this summer.
7. Chicago Bears - Kevin White WR West Virginia
The Bears traded away their best WR in Brandon Marshall, so they need to replace him if they ever want to see the playoffs again. White is the 2nd best WR in the draft and with Cooper gone the Bears will take the freakishly athletic White with the No. 7 overall pick and he'll start opposite Alshon Jeffery in Week 1.
8. Atlanta Falcons - Todd Gurley RB Georgia
I went back and forth on Vic Beasley or Todd Gurley, but the Falcons have little to no running game. While they do need help on the defensive side of the ball as well, no player remaining on this draft board will make as big an impact for them as Todd Gurley. Their OL pick last year didn't pan out due to injury, but they need to take the pressure off Matt Ryan to make plays and you do that by running the football. They are also in the trade mix for Adrian Peterson, and if they get him, they'll take Beasley but they'd probably rather take a younger player for less money in Gurley.
9. NY Giants - Brandon Scherff OL Iowa
The first OL taken in the draft is Brandon Scherff out of Iowa and he'll likely start right away. The only question is whether it will be as a guard or a tackle. He'll probably start out as a guard and then likely move to tackle as the season progresses. The Giants like moving their offensive linemen around to suit their needs and Scherff won the award this year as the best offensive lineman in the nation. He should provide Eli Manning more time to throw to ODB Jr. and Victor Cruz, and that's not good for the rest of the NFC East.
10. St. Louis Rams - Ereck Flowers OT Miami
With Jake Long not likely to come back to the Rams, and a new QB, the Rams need to improve their offensive line. Their defensive line is clearly set, and they may have found a decent RB in Tre Mason, but they need to give Foles time to throw the football, something Sam Bradford never had. The Rams really wanted Brandon Scherff, but the Giants took him off the board one pick earlier, so they go for Flowers out of Miami to be their starting Right Tackle and primary run blocker.
11. Minnesota Vikings - Melvin Gordon RB Wisconsin
If Adrian Peterson is traded, you can bet the Vikings are going to look to one of the top RBs in the draft to replace him. With Gurley on his way to Atlanta, Minnesota takes a son close to home and drafts Melvin Gordon from Camp Randall. Gordon did what many other Wisky running backs have done and that's put up extremely gaudy rushing stats. However, the question is will that translate to the NFL?
12. Cleveland Browns - Devante Parker WR Louisville
If the Browns were a character in the Bible, they'd be Job. This team has seemingly made every possible wrong move for the last 20 years. Trent Richardson, Josh Gordon, and we won't even get started on the QBs they've wasted 1st round picks on, the most recent of which just got out of rehab. They need WR help badly with Gordon out for the foreseeable future, and Parker is arguably the best one available. With 2 picks in the 1st round I wouldn't be surprised to see them try and move up, but they really should stay put and save all the draft picks they have, because they're going to need them.
13. New Orleans Saints - Vic Beasley LB Clemson
I have no idea how Rob Ryan still has a job. I really think as a public service, New Orleans needs to fire him or at least trade him to a city with a healthier lifestyle. That having been said, the Saints need a LB and if Beasley somehow lasts this long, New Orleans will gladly take him and he'll start in September. He has the speed to cover receivers as well as get after the QB on blitzes and that's something Defensive Coordinators covet.
14. Miami Dolphins - La'el Collins OL LSU
Miami just signed Greg Jennings, so they probably aren't taking a WR. I don't know why everyone is so high on Ryan Tannehill, but if he's going to ever make the playoffs he needs some time to throw and a strong running game. The last 24 months have not been kind to the Dolphins offensive line, and Collins is someone who could start at Guard or Right Tackle right away. This should be a good safe pick for Miami.
15. San Francisco 49ers - Trae Waynes CB Michigan State
These are not the 49ers of 2011-14, they are going to be more like the 49ers of 2003-10. If this team finishes 8-8, I'd be shocked. They had a complete turnover this winter between retirements and free agency. They have Bowman coming back from injury and they still have Aldon Smith, but they need some help in the secondary, so I would not be surprised to see them go get Trae Waynes out of Michigan State. He has elite ball-hawking secondary skills and would help the back end of a defense that has to face Dangeruss Wilson, Carson Palmer, and now Nick Foles twice a year.
16. Houston Texans - Bud Dupree LB Kentucky
Dupree will provide a nice addition to a team that already has Jadeveon Clowney and the NFL's best defensive player in J.J. Watt. He'll give the Texans a new pass rushing threat and likely start at strong side linebacker in Week 1. That means teams playing the Texans will either have to go towards Dupree and Watt or take their chances with Clowney. If all 3 players remain healthy, that is not a decision offensive coordinators are going to feel comfortable about.
17. Tennessee (from San Diego) - D.J. Humphries OT Florida
While the Titans and Panthers basically swapped tackles in the off season, if the Titans want to have any semblance of protection for their QB and run blocking they have to upgrade their front line. Humphries has quick feet and does a very good job walling off defenders per scouting reports. Getting Rivers, a proven QB, and an OT in the 1st round, while gaining an extra 3rd round pick sure looks like a smart move for Tennessee.
18. Kansas City Chiefs - Dorial Green-Beckham WR Mizzou/Oklahoma
The Chiefs have one legitimate WR in Jeremy Maclin. If they are going to compete for a playoff spot they have to give Alex Smith another weapon, and despite his past, DGB is still a very good WR. He's 6'5" 237lbs, and that's something you can't coach. If they take a chance on him, he's going to be on an extremely tight leash given the league's new conduct policy, but since being dismissed from Mizzou he's stayed out of trouble and scouts at the combine had him rising on their draft boards after seeing his talents.
19. Cleveland Browns - Malcom Brown DT Texas
The Browns took a WR earlier in the 1st round, and they go defense in the 2nd round to help with their run stopping in a division where they have to play 3 teams twice a year that love to run the football. Brown will draw double teams as he anchors the middle for Cleveland. Though he still needs some work on his pass rushing skills, he should be a big help to stopping the run in the gritty AFC North.
20. Philadelphia Eagles - Phillip Dorsett WR Miami
The Eagles tried to move up to get Mariota, but San Diego had more bargaining power. Philly is quickly on the way to being the smallest and fastest team in NFL history. Dorsett can flat out fly. While he needs some work on his route running, expect a lot of over the middle slot passes and trick plays to show off his blazing speed. It's a gamble to take him this early, but with Kelly's system, he should be a scary weapon for opposing defenses.
21. Cincinnati Bengals - Eddie Goldman DT FSU
Paired with Geno Atkins this could be a nightmare tandem for teams playing the Bengals. He's an exceptionally gifted bull-rushing DT who showed strong leadership skills when he was at FSU. His frame at 6'4" 320lbs is ideal for a DT and being paired with Atkins, he'll have a great mentor to start his NFL career.
22. Pittsburgh Steelers - Landon Collins SS Alabama
With Polamalu, Ike Taylor, and Dick Lebeau having left Pittsburgh, the Steeler defense is going to look a lot different in 2015. Collins just made a visit to Steel Town USA, and was the only safety to visit the Steelers. Collins's draft stock is predicted to be right around this area, and with Pittsburgh clearly needing a new presence at safety, Collins would be an ideal fit.
23. Detroit Lions - Danny Shelton DT Washington
With Brown and Goldman gone, the Lions take another DT they feel can help out an aging Ngata. Shelton idealizes Ngata and pairing the two together would help to ease the pain of losing Suh and Fairley to free agency. Shelton didn't have a lot of other visits outside Detroit, but the Lions need help up front badly if they want to head back to the postseason.
24. Arizona Cardinals - Eric Kendricks LB UCLA
The Cards lost some key players to free agency this year, and with Darryl Washington's domestic abuse situation looming, the Cards can't count that he'll be there every game this year. Kendricks won the Butkus award this year and was a 2nd team All-american. Arians wants to get younger and faster and Kendricks looks to be a safe pick to accomplish that.
25. Carolina Panthers - Andrus Peat OT Stanford
The Panthers went out this year and got Michael Oher and Jonathan Martin to help their offensive line, which was abysmal last year. Those pick ups are stopgaps at best. Oher will probably be your starting left tackle to start the season and by taking Peat they get a smart talented player, from a school that loves to run the ball, who can be used interchangeably with Martin (another Stanford lineman) on the right side. I think the ultimate goal is for Peat to become your left tackle, but this process will bring him along gradually and allow for development, rather than throwing him on the blind side to start the season.
26. Baltimore Ravens - Marcus Peters CB Washington
The Ravens hosted a half dozen or so defensive backs to try and find the right fit to sure up the back end of their defense, and I believe they'll likely take Marcus Peters. Peters has phenomenal ball skills and hits receivers hard when making tackles. He also has a great ability to get receivers off their routes, which is vital in disrupting timing and chemistry between wideouts and their QB.
27. Dallas Cowboys - Kevin Johnson CB Wake Forest
Dallas has a great offense, but their defense needs some work, especially the secondary. Johnson may need to put on a little bit of weight, but with a strength and conditioning program he should be fine. His size is also a bit of concern, but he makes up for it in speed and athleticism. Johnson's play making ability should contribute right away to a Dallas secondary that severely needs some help.
28. Denver Broncos - Jake Fisher OT Oregon
Peyton Manning is probably the least mobile QB in the NFL right now. So, he's going to need as much time as possible to throw the football, because he's not going to prolong any plays with his legs. Fisher can play right tackle or an inside guard position, though he may start out on the right side. With Kubiak's blocking scheme Fisher would be an ideal fit in Denver.
29. Indianapolis Colts - T.J. Clemmings OT Pittsburgh
If the Colts know one thing it is that they have to protect Andrew Luck. Luck has been getting hit far too often, and Indy needs to make sure their golden goose is protected. Clemmings's technique still needs a little bit of work, but he supposedly had a good workout with Indy earlier this spring and would probably start right away.
30. Green Bay Packers - Jalen Collins CB LSU
The Packers should have been in the Super Bowl last year, but due to a completely epic collapse in the 4th Quarter of the NFC Championship game, Seattle went and then followed suit by handing New England the Lombardi Trophy. Green Bay still has a Super Bowl roster, so this pick is more about adding depth than it is addressing a major position of need. Collins probably won't start right away, but he'll give the Packers a stronger secondary in a division that is going to throw the football a lot.
31. New Orleans Saints - Nelson Agholor WR USC
The Saints needs another WR now that Kenny Stills is out of town and their best receiver Jimmy Graham is off to the Pacific Northwest. Agholor is a solid route runner with good instincts. With Colston looking to retire in a year or so, this pick provides a natural progression for the Saints who won't have to turn over an entire receiving corps in the span of 12 months.
32. New England Patriots - Byron Jones CB UCONN
The Pats don't go too far from home for their next CB in selecting Byron Jones out of UCONN. Jones ran a 4.4 at his pro day and has the combo of intelligence and instincts that the Pats love. He does have some difficulty readjusting and changing direction, but New England has shown they can fix those issues.
As I said before I'm going to miss this year's draft, but I look forward to seeing how each team addresses areas of need next week from my phone. Chicago doesn't have the allure of Radio City Music Hall in New York, but I am glad to see the NFL is moving locations around and trying new things. Here's to the start of the 2015 season. Football can't get here fast enough.
